The world has called on Lebanon's military to maintain the latest truce between Israel and Hezbollah. It will need a lot of help if it is to rise to the occasion.
The "Lebanese military" has been an oxymoron all my life. It's never been much of a thing at all. Of course it can't enforce a ceasefire between two much more powerful opponents.
Unfortunately, the only reliable numbers are pre-Israeli invasion. They’ve definitely lost some fighters in the past two months, but we don’t know the exact numbers. From what I’ve seen, they’re down anywhere between 3,500 and 4,000 men since September 23. However, there’s also been a recruitment drive over the past year, so it’s difficult to say for sure. In either case, I’m reasonably confident they still have greater numbers than the LAF.
However, at the same time, Hezbollah's resources have diminished. They most likely do not have the resources or logistical capacity to maintain 100,000 active fighters, and even if they did, they would face serious shortages of weapons and rations. Furthermore, with much of the leadership gone, there is little chance they can coordinate such a large force. This means much of Hezbollah is operating at smaller, local levels instead of conducting large-scale combat operations. In comparison, the LAF will have much more international backing and better morale than Hezbollah fighters.
I hope for the sake of Lebanon that the international backing pours in, but it's too early to say for sure. Regarding Hezbollah, I'm not so quick to write them off. I've done a lot of research into their financial capabilities, which are very impressive. They have also been planning for exactly this scenario since 2006: it is likely they have contingency plans in place and significant supplies underground. Their rocket and missile capabilities also still pose a demonstrable threat.
Amazing post, as always. Thank you!
The "Lebanese military" has been an oxymoron all my life. It's never been much of a thing at all. Of course it can't enforce a ceasefire between two much more powerful opponents.
Hesbolla still has 100k active soilderes? Even after all this fighting?
Unfortunately, the only reliable numbers are pre-Israeli invasion. They’ve definitely lost some fighters in the past two months, but we don’t know the exact numbers. From what I’ve seen, they’re down anywhere between 3,500 and 4,000 men since September 23. However, there’s also been a recruitment drive over the past year, so it’s difficult to say for sure. In either case, I’m reasonably confident they still have greater numbers than the LAF.
However, at the same time, Hezbollah's resources have diminished. They most likely do not have the resources or logistical capacity to maintain 100,000 active fighters, and even if they did, they would face serious shortages of weapons and rations. Furthermore, with much of the leadership gone, there is little chance they can coordinate such a large force. This means much of Hezbollah is operating at smaller, local levels instead of conducting large-scale combat operations. In comparison, the LAF will have much more international backing and better morale than Hezbollah fighters.
I hope for the sake of Lebanon that the international backing pours in, but it's too early to say for sure. Regarding Hezbollah, I'm not so quick to write them off. I've done a lot of research into their financial capabilities, which are very impressive. They have also been planning for exactly this scenario since 2006: it is likely they have contingency plans in place and significant supplies underground. Their rocket and missile capabilities also still pose a demonstrable threat.