For a Ceasefire to Work, Lebanon Needs Serious Help

The world has called on Lebanon's military to maintain the latest truce between Israel and Hezbollah. It will need a lot of help if it is to rise to the occasion.

Lebanon’s military remains on the edge of crisis. Image source

On November 27, the United States and France brokered a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. At its crux lay the future of southern Lebanon, from which Hezbollah has agreed to withdraw north of the Litani River, making way for the Lebanese armed forces to occupy the troubled border region between the two countries. However, both the Lebanese and Israeli governments have already blamed each other for violating the agreement, with Beirut noting Israel's ongoing operations in Gaza and Israel firing upon what it calls 'suspects' in the southern zone. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to respond to all truce violations with military force, stating, "The war is not over until we realize all of its goals, including the return of residents of the north safely home."

With the truce already on shaky ground, its future viability depends on a robust Lebanese military to occupy the country’s south. However, with Lebanon continuing to reel from a catastrophic economic and political crisis that began years before Israel's October invasion, the country's military has fallen upon hard times. Before the 2019 crisis, the average enlisted Lebanese soldier earned a monthly salary of $800; now, that figure has fallen to little over $100, with even high-ranking officers earning around just $250. Things have become so bad for the Lebanese government that Washington rerouted $72 million in aid to Lebanon to keep these paltry salaries flowing. Qatar donated another $20 million to this end last July. However, the Lebanese military and state will require much more to maintain any semblance of stability in the future.

In less than two months, Israeli strikes have damaged or destroyed an estimated 30% of structures south of the Litani River (image source)

A government in crisis

With the Lebanese government incapable of maintaining military and police salaries under current circumstances, the Lebanese military is also woefully underequipped. South of the Litani, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) have just two mechanized infantry brigades, one special forces regiment, and a complete lack of air power. Writing for Responsible Statecraft last month, Jennifer Kavanagh notes, "The LAF lacks the resources, modernized equipment, skilled manpower, leadership, or institutions required to manage the country's security anytime in the foreseeable future, especially during or right after a destructive Israeli invasion." Moreover, the LAF lacks the manpower to contend with Hezbollah, with just 70,000 – 80,000 active duty soldiers compared to Hezbollah's estimated more than 100,000.

There is also the matter of maintaining an occupation in southern Lebanon. The region is primarily home to two different groups: a Lebanese Shi'a majority and a Palestinian refugee minority. Both groups have bitter memories of past clashes with Lebanese militias drawn from other groups in the country, especially the Palestinians, who endured brutal attacks by the Israel-backed Maronite Christian Phalange militia that killed as many as 3,500 people in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps in 1982. For the LAF to effectively hold the region, locals will need to view these forces positively and not perceive them as outsiders. With roughly 85% of Lebanese Shi'as trusting Hezbollah, according to a poll from this summer, the LAF will face severe obstacles to winning hearts and minds in the country's south.

French President Emmanuel Macron (right) hugs Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati (left) during the conference on Lebanon in Paris on October 24 (image source)

Assistance needed

For Lebanon and the LAF to succeed in this daunting task, significant help from the outside world will be required. Last month, France offered $108 million in military aid for Lebanon to expand its armed forces, and the US offered $157 million in humanitarian aid specifically targeted at internally displaced persons. For Lebanese soldiers to do their work effectively and be above bribery from groups such as Hezbollah, their salaries must also rise substantially. These forces must also provide an adequate security blanket for reconstruction efforts. With as many as 30% of the buildings in southern Lebanon damaged or destroyed by Israeli strikes and damages incurred elsewhere in the country, the total cost for reconstruction could be as high as $3.7 billion, according to Mercy Corps, an international aid organization operating in the region. Only by providing tangible benefits to the people of southern Lebanon will the LAF have a chance of successfully occupying the region in the long term.

For Lebanon to maintain this military operation in the long term, it will need massive amounts of foreign investment in its ailing economy. In addition to corruption, one of the key factors that scared away Lebanon's primarily Gulf State investors was the rising power of Hezbollah and the growing Iranian influence in the country. With the Gulf and Iran now on better terms, their tolerance for Hezbollah's presence may have improved. Still, the state will need a more robust economy to keep Hezbollah's ambitions in check, particularly with Israel ready to strike again at a moment's notice. Currently, Hezbollah is one of the only entities capable of offering cash to Lebanon's struggling populace, of which some 80% live in poverty, with most reliant on foreign remittances. For the Lebanese government to inspire the confidence of its people, especially those in southern Lebanon, it will need to rebuild the country's largely destroyed banking sector from the ground up. Such an effort requires reintegration with the global economy after more than five years of near-total neglect.

Although this truce is shaky, it may be the Lebanese people's best chance at a safer and more prosperous life. However, with the 2006 ceasefire agreement failing to curb Hezbollah’s influence in the country and Israel maintaining the ability to unilaterally conduct further strikes, one cannot help but be pessimistic. Although aid has begun to pour into Lebanon, much more will be needed to rebuild it into a place that can maintain peace and regional stability moving forward. If this does not occur, or if one of both sides refuses to give this agreement a fair chance, the situation will likely devolve into one of increased hostility, as it has before. In this war, one takes whatever sliver of hope one can get.