Hey guys great podcast. I like that you talked from all different angles and saying that many topics the Russian wanted to promote were topics people already cared about (influence or no influence)
Can I ask you guys a question about ceasefire talks? You said the sticky point was control of Gaza Egypt border which they took in May. But what I thought the constant sticking point was Hamas demand for Israel to guarantee a permanent ceasefire which Israel has never accepted since the start of the war. Honestly I think gallant is right in that they can give corridor back and later take it if necessary but the fact that Hamas wants a guarantee permanent ceasefire before prisoner swap and Israel has said they will not finish this war until Hamas is out of control (by complete surrender or exile) has been the main issue keeping a ceasefire for most of this war. Am I wrong ?
Hi Shawn - you are right, the lack of commitment to a permanent ceasefire has been a major sticking point, but the Philadelphi corridor demand appears to be the Israeli government's latest sticking point, now that there is greater pressure to reach an agreement. Recent Israeli protests are putting severe pressure on this government, and its internal fractures are starting to show. From everything I've seen, Hamas is clearly dug in and their tunnel network is much more extensive than previously thought, making a military victory extremely unlikely - this is in line with Defense Minister Gallant's assessment. With Netanyahu's faction of the government still balking at a permanent ceasefire, the question is whether that position can be maintained under sustained domestic and international pressure.
Adam, I really appreciate you replying back to me. Maybe Im dense but I am trying to understand how all this works. How can people (Media ect) calm that the corridor issue is the sticking point and blame Israel PM when (in my opinion) Hamas has denied every ceasefire even before the corridor was in plan? Hamas wants a guaranteed permeant ceasefire, Israel doesn't want to give them one (Which I think they have all rights to do that) and Israel has agreed to all terms from the USA deals. So in my opinion, it's not Israel holding anything from the deal (the corridor means nothing), its Hamas that does not budge on the other terms that have been there since the beginning. So why do people talk about the corridor when it seems to be irrelevant? Again, I must be missing something that only smart people (like the people at "Between the lines") who know wars, geopolitics, negotiations ect are understanding this.
The corridor issue matters because officially accepting it would be to backtrack from the recognized territory of Oslo Accords (Arafat ran into the same issue over East Jerusalem at Camp David, claiming he simply couldn’t take such a compromise to his people). In May, Hamas claimed to be open to a permanent ceasefire, but rejected the August proposal by the US because it was not permanent and because it contained the corridor clause.
Hamas has knowingly brought terrible destruction on their own people, but are so deeply embedded there that they can continue to fight and survive indefinitely, which is a win for them. They apparently wish go back to some semblance of the pre-October 7 status quo and try to rebuild, but will continue to fight on until their demands for a permanent ceasefire with the full territorial integrity of Gaza fully intact. I tend to believe the Israeli defense minister’s doubt that a military victory is possible, so it seems likely that Hamas will have these basic demands met in the outcome of any negotiation. It’s possible that, after this is all done, Hamas could lose the popular support of the Gaza citizenry due to the destruction they’ve wrought, but that will be for the Palestinians to decide.
Tension between Türkiye (sic) and the West are deteriorating rapidly. Is there a project in the works to opine on the issue? While this may have started as Erdogan leveraging the regional chaos to grow his influence, it seems the tempest in the teapot might become Frankenstein's monster. I would not be surprised if there are deeper connections to BRICS behind the curtain trying to neuter NATO's Bosporus arm.
Thank you for raising awareness on this strained thread in the fabric of international relations. The internal pressure in Turkey that you discussed was highlighted with the incident involving the two U.S. Marines. The geopolitical dynamic could have lurched sideways if they had been abducted or worse. We now seem to be living in times where the unprecedented is being tested and we should no longer have much confidence in the status quo prevailing. There are many chickens coming home to roost as a consequence of things like Nord Stream, the Houthis, the Chinese population decline, South China Sea, tariff wars, U.S. political assassination attempts, cyber warfare, and on and on… At the very least, these are precursors of economic catastrophe in the globalized world.
Hey guys great podcast. I like that you talked from all different angles and saying that many topics the Russian wanted to promote were topics people already cared about (influence or no influence)
Can I ask you guys a question about ceasefire talks? You said the sticky point was control of Gaza Egypt border which they took in May. But what I thought the constant sticking point was Hamas demand for Israel to guarantee a permanent ceasefire which Israel has never accepted since the start of the war. Honestly I think gallant is right in that they can give corridor back and later take it if necessary but the fact that Hamas wants a guarantee permanent ceasefire before prisoner swap and Israel has said they will not finish this war until Hamas is out of control (by complete surrender or exile) has been the main issue keeping a ceasefire for most of this war. Am I wrong ?
Hi Shawn - you are right, the lack of commitment to a permanent ceasefire has been a major sticking point, but the Philadelphi corridor demand appears to be the Israeli government's latest sticking point, now that there is greater pressure to reach an agreement. Recent Israeli protests are putting severe pressure on this government, and its internal fractures are starting to show. From everything I've seen, Hamas is clearly dug in and their tunnel network is much more extensive than previously thought, making a military victory extremely unlikely - this is in line with Defense Minister Gallant's assessment. With Netanyahu's faction of the government still balking at a permanent ceasefire, the question is whether that position can be maintained under sustained domestic and international pressure.
Adam, I really appreciate you replying back to me. Maybe Im dense but I am trying to understand how all this works. How can people (Media ect) calm that the corridor issue is the sticking point and blame Israel PM when (in my opinion) Hamas has denied every ceasefire even before the corridor was in plan? Hamas wants a guaranteed permeant ceasefire, Israel doesn't want to give them one (Which I think they have all rights to do that) and Israel has agreed to all terms from the USA deals. So in my opinion, it's not Israel holding anything from the deal (the corridor means nothing), its Hamas that does not budge on the other terms that have been there since the beginning. So why do people talk about the corridor when it seems to be irrelevant? Again, I must be missing something that only smart people (like the people at "Between the lines") who know wars, geopolitics, negotiations ect are understanding this.
The corridor issue matters because officially accepting it would be to backtrack from the recognized territory of Oslo Accords (Arafat ran into the same issue over East Jerusalem at Camp David, claiming he simply couldn’t take such a compromise to his people). In May, Hamas claimed to be open to a permanent ceasefire, but rejected the August proposal by the US because it was not permanent and because it contained the corridor clause.
Hamas has knowingly brought terrible destruction on their own people, but are so deeply embedded there that they can continue to fight and survive indefinitely, which is a win for them. They apparently wish go back to some semblance of the pre-October 7 status quo and try to rebuild, but will continue to fight on until their demands for a permanent ceasefire with the full territorial integrity of Gaza fully intact. I tend to believe the Israeli defense minister’s doubt that a military victory is possible, so it seems likely that Hamas will have these basic demands met in the outcome of any negotiation. It’s possible that, after this is all done, Hamas could lose the popular support of the Gaza citizenry due to the destruction they’ve wrought, but that will be for the Palestinians to decide.
Ok that makes more sense. Thanks for replying.
Tension between Türkiye (sic) and the West are deteriorating rapidly. Is there a project in the works to opine on the issue? While this may have started as Erdogan leveraging the regional chaos to grow his influence, it seems the tempest in the teapot might become Frankenstein's monster. I would not be surprised if there are deeper connections to BRICS behind the curtain trying to neuter NATO's Bosporus arm.
Hi Kevin - have a listen to today's podcast where I address this one!
Thank you for raising awareness on this strained thread in the fabric of international relations. The internal pressure in Turkey that you discussed was highlighted with the incident involving the two U.S. Marines. The geopolitical dynamic could have lurched sideways if they had been abducted or worse. We now seem to be living in times where the unprecedented is being tested and we should no longer have much confidence in the status quo prevailing. There are many chickens coming home to roost as a consequence of things like Nord Stream, the Houthis, the Chinese population decline, South China Sea, tariff wars, U.S. political assassination attempts, cyber warfare, and on and on… At the very least, these are precursors of economic catastrophe in the globalized world.
M
Z
divide and conquer