Red Sea Shutdown: Why Houthi Attacks are Here to Stay

The Houthis are rallying for the Palestinian cause, the one thing that united an otherwise deeply divided Middle East

A Houthi forces helicopter approaches the Galaxy Leader on November 19. Source

The Yemen-based Houthi militant group continues to disrupt global trade on the Red Sea in support of the Palestinian cause. With no likely end to the situation in Gaza and a decade’s worth of efforts to subdue the Houthis largely feckless, the international community will likely pay dearly for the consequences of the war in Gaza moving forward. In this article, we look at the latest events affecting commercial shipping in one of the world’s critical strategic chokepoints, the response of the U.S. and its partners, and why the Houthis are here to stay.

Houthis take control of the Red Sea

Tensions on the Red Sea escalated on November 19 when Yemen-based Houthi militants hijacked the Bahamian-flagged cargo ship Galaxy Leader, docking the vessel in the port of Hodeidah and claiming it was Israeli-owned. A spokesman for the Houthis claimed the hijacking was in response to Israel’s “heinous acts against our Palestinian brothers in Gaza and the West Bank.” Although Prime Minister Netanyahu initially denied Israeli ownership, the vessel was later confirmed to be owned by Ray Shipping, a firm owned by Israeli billionaire Abraham Ungar. Given the complex and international nature of international shipping ownership structures, the Houthis’ ability to determine that Israeli interests indeed owned the Galaxy Leader is either a testament to their intelligence capability or potentially indicative of intelligence sharing from their Iranian backers.

The Houthis have since carried out at least 27 attacks on vessels since November 19, expanding the scope of their operations to U.S. ships on January 19 when they launched a drone attack on the American-owned bulk carrier Genco Piccardy. Vessels transiting the Red Sea have now openly declared neutrality to avoid Houthi attacks. For example, the Panamanian-flagged Star Blessing wrote “NO RELATE TO ISRAEL” in its destination and official designation port.

The Bab el-Mandeb or Gate of Tears, where most of these attacks have occurred, is a 30-kilometer-wide strategic chokepoint through which ships must transit to access the Suez Canal and move between the European, Middle Eastern, and East Asian markets. An estimated 21,000 vessels cross the strait each year, representing tens of billions of dollars worth of goods ranging from bulk commodities to manufactured goods and vital energy supplies for the European market. Global freight costs have surged due to the Houthi attacks, with the price to transport a 40-foot container from China to Europe rising 248% to roughly U.S. $4000 since November 21. These costs and increased insurance premiums forced some of the world’s largest shipping companies to suspend their Red Sea routes altogether, forcing them to ship around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope and increasing shipping times by 10–14 days. According to one shipping executive, these higher rates could increase the cost of each voyage by as much as $760,000.

Some of the world’s largest shipping companies have suspended their Red Sea routes altogether due to rising insurance and other costs

International insurance giant Lloyd’s of London announced on January 17 that it is continuing to insure vessels transiting the Red Sea, albeit at higher rates; however, some major insurers are refusing to cover ships owned by the U.S., U.K. or Israeli interests at this time. Should insurers declare the Red Sea a conflict zone moving forward, this would effectively shut it down to all but the most essential traffic, adding even more significant strain to the global economy. On January 12, the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF), a US-led multinational coalition based in Bahrain, advised vessels to avoid transiting the Red Sea for several days.

The ongoing Israeli operations in Gaza have caused the Houthis to vow more attacks on the Red Sea in response. With Prime Minister Netanyahu indicating no plans for withdrawal and tensions continuing to rise between Israel and Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon, the Houthi attacks on the Red Sea are unlikely to cease in the foreseeable future.   

The Bab el-Mandeb strait is a vital chokepoint that controls access to the Egypt’s Suez Canal. Source

Yemeni visitors tour the Galaxy Leader, now docked in Hodeidah. Source

US aerial strikes largely ineffective; Houthis continue to thrive under siege

Rising shipping costs due to Houthi attacks amid ongoing global inflationary pressures have prompted increased attention from the United States and its allies, who announced the formation of the multinational Operation Prosperity Guardian on December 18. U.S. forces have carried out five rounds of airstrikes against targets in 28 areas in the Houthi-controlled regions in southwest Yemen. The latest of these, which occurred on January 18, reportedly killed five people and injured six others, according to a statement from the Houthis. Although President Biden admitted that these strikes are unlikely to halt Houthi attacks on the Red Sea, he vowed to continue them regardless. “When you say working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes,” the President said in a January 18 statement to reporters.

“When you say working, are they stopping the Houthis? No. Are they going to continue? Yes.”

-President Joe Biden

The Houthis remain accustomed to operating under aerial bombardment. The extensive bombing campaign led by a US-backed, Saudi-led coalition that involved some 25,000 airstrikes between 2017 and 2023 claimed the lives of some 19,000 civilians, often through the specific targeting of civilian gatherings in an apparent effort to inflict maximum casualties. However, this figure is minuscule compared to the death toll that resulted from the coalition’s blockade of Yemeni ports, which heavily contributed to the deaths of some 223,000 due to factors such as starvation and lack of medical supplies as of 2022. In total, the Yemeni civil war has claimed the lives of an estimated 377,000 people since it began in 2014, with the United Nations labelling it “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” last year. And yet, a decade later, the Houthis are arguably in their most powerful position.

Although the Saudi-led war ostensibly aimed to curb Iranian influence in the Red Sea – a vital trade route for energy exports from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states – it practically achieved the opposite. Not only did the blockade have little impact on the smuggling of Iranian weapons to the Houthis – as evidenced by their continued ability to wage war using Iranian weapons – it also limited the flow of vital supplies to the territory. In this way, the blockade ultimately bolstered the Houthis’ position by making the populace even more dependent upon the militant group for necessities. In this way, the blockade had the dual impact of both making the Yemeni population more dependent on the Houthis and bringing the Houthis closer to their Iranian backers. With new restrictions now in place, it is unlikely that these will practically achieve different results.

US Sanctions, Origins of the Houthis, and Iranian involvement

On January 17, U.S. officials classified the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGD), hitting it with harsh sanctions aimed at limiting their funding and weapons in response to the Red Sea attacks. In December, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on 13 individuals and entities allegedly involved in funnelling millions of dollars to the group. The Houthis were previously sanctioned in January 2021 in the final days of President Donald Trump’s term as part of efforts to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East: President Biden lifted these sanctions upon taking office that year, arguing they blocked humanitarian aid to Yemen. This latest round of sanctions exempts commercial shipments of medical supplies and food, the latter of which Yemen imports 90% of its current need. The United Nations imposed an arms embargo on the Houthis in 2015. None of these efforts have hindered the inflow of Iranian weapons to the Houthis.

The Houthi movement stems from Yemen’s Zaydi Shi’a community, which has existed in the southern Arabian Peninsula since the 9th Century and represents some 40% of the country’s population. The group derives its name from its deceased leader, Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi (1959–2004), who died during a series of purges initiated by the government of then-Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh (Houthi forces later killed the former President in Sana’a in 2017). The group has longstanding ties to Iran and the other Shi’a movements in the Middle East, with al-Houthi reportedly maintaining close relationships with both Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in his later years.

The relationship between the Houthis and Iran is a matter of contention among experts, with some arguing that the group is more of a partner to Tehran than an outright proxy. However, evidence suggests that ties between the Houthis and Tehran have deepened substantially in recent months. In 2022, experts noted that although Iran supplied some of the Houthi’s weapons, most were purchased from the global black market or captured from their enemies in battle. However, that year, the United Nations found that thousands of weapons destined for Yemen and seized on the Arabian Sea likely came from a single port in Iran and that other illegal weapons shipments had arrived via land and sea smuggling routes that year. Moreover, since the outbreak of the war in Gaza last October, there have been reports of personnel from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah on the ground in Yemen, according to regional and Iranian sources. Tehran has been increasingly providing the Houthis with advanced drones, anti-ship missiles, precision strike ballistic missiles and medium-range missiles, all of which have been used in attacks against commercial ships transiting the Red Sea since November.

If claims about the relationship between Tehran and Houthis are valid, it makes the Houthis even more dangerous as they likely have a high degree of agency compared to other Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah. Although Tehran supplies the Houthis with weapons, there is no guarantee that they could be reined in by Tehran should the situation call for it. In this way, the Houthis represent an enduring threat to the United States and its allies as well as both an asset and potential liability for the Iranians.

The Houthis represent an enduring threat to the United States and its allies as well as both an asset and potential liability for the Iranians.

Weapons captured from the Houthis by US forces in the Red Sea. The disassembled ballistic missile (in blue) is likely of the Iranian Nour or Ghadir variety. Source

Conclusion: a unifying cause with a global impact

The Houthi attacks that have caught the world’s attention are the latest iteration of consequences related to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine. The Palestinian cause has broad appeal, cutting across religious and ethnic lines in the Middle East and worldwide. By taking up this cause, the Houthis are gaining widespread international legitimacy while backing their Saudi adversaries into a corner, with Riyadh recently calling for restraint in the wake of U.S. attacks. Just as the 1973 OPEC embargo in response to the Israeli war that year had a profound and lasting impact on the global economy, this stand taken by the Houthis will likely bear significant consequences moving forward.

The Palestinian cause is the single greatest unifier in an increasingly divided Middle East: the one thing agreed upon by Sunnis, Shi’a, Arabs, Persians, and practically everyone else. Authoritarian or not, the governments of these countries are susceptible to public opinion, as evidenced by the previous decade’s ‘Arab Spring’ revolts and periodic flare-ups of civil unrest in Iran. Moreover, they are also sensitive to the opinions of hardliners within their regime structures. For this reason, each regime is way hamstrung into supporting the Houthis in their ongoing campaign, and they, like the international community, must bear the economic and social consequences. Further international aggression will likely embolden the Houthis. The only thing that is likely to put a stop to their attacks on the Red Sea is a permanent cessation of the Israeli assault on Gaza, an unlikely prospect under the current Israeli leadership. Even in the event of a permanent Israeli ceasefire, there is no guarantee that Houthi attacks would immediately cease as the scope of the damage inflicted already could result in further retribution on their part. For this reason, we can expect a lengthy and potentially escalating conflict on the Red Sea amid a worsening global economy and rising energy prices in an increasingly uncertain world.