4 Comments

It seems to me, based on the numbers of injured, blinded, and maimed, that more than 1000 have been permanently removed from the battlefield, and more temporarily. Since the pagers were only issued to important people, probably not privates, these are mostly experienced combat leaders, and technical experts such as rocket people.

Hezbollah is said to have 40,000 troops. I would guess that 10% are sergeants and above. That’s close to the reported numbers of wounded, and suggests that, for the moment, Hezbollah’s troops are close to leaderless, and Israel will have a very strong incentive to enter Lebanon and do as much damage as possible before Hezbollah can organize a guerrilla response.

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The numbers are based on what has been reported by Lebanese hospitals. Because Hezbollah is so heavily embedded into the civilian population, the detonation of explosive-laden devices among them was very likely to inflict significant collateral damage.

While the organization’s leadership has taken a significant blow, it is much too early to tell if they are able to reconstitute themselves. An Israeli ground invasion still poses signicant risks as Hezbollah knows the terrain much better than the IDF and still has significant numbers of battle hardened troops. Effective guerilla campaigns have been waged with less.

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I think everything since the pager attack to present day are staging operations for ground invasion. Also was surprised that Nasrallah was not in Iran.

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Oh it was planned, even the dates are special. Muhammads birthday is celebrated the day they set the pagers off and also October 7th and 8th.

Current Intel says something is going to happen again on the 7th.

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