Interested parties probably now know a lot more about our Aegis Combat System’s effectiveness. Let’s hope the real data remains secret from our adversaries. I do anticipate endless creative speculation.
I expect a big response from Israel. This time it wont be some random remote site, or a houthi facility in Yemen. I predict a strike on Tehran, and on major mil facilities. Including possible nuclear research or future reactor facilities already under construction. Something like Operation Opera against Iraq in 1981.
While its on topic. If Iran keeps this up and using houthi in the Red Sea they are asking for another Operation Mantis.
Are you referring to Operation Preying Mantis from 1988? If so, my ship was on that little deployment, and I can tell you that it would not work now.
Then, in 1988, all the Iranians had were some old American warplanes armed with Exocet missiles, and Swedish speedboats with .50 cal machine guns mounted on them. They attacked with the speedboats and got slaughtered.
Now they have top of the line shore-to-surface missiles and lots of them. They could sink every ship in another Operation Preying Mantis without ever leaving their shelters. The good news is that the Navy KNOWS this, so they're not about to get in range of those things.
Why do you think the aircraft carriers in the failed operation to break the Houthi blockade are staying out of the Red Sea and hanging back in the Arabian Sea or the Gulf of Oman?
That's the one. I realize things have changed. Our weapons have as well. I'm talking about a similar response to a similar aggression. I used Praying Mantis as an example of the scale of response.
It is important to note that any information supplied by official Israeli sources about the effectiveness of the attacks and the damaged suffered is extremely unlikely to be accurate.
Under what circumstances would it be to their advantage to make such information public? Even the smallest detail could be of advantage to their enemy.
"All warfare is based on deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective."
Israel gives access to many international media outlets and grants its own media outlets a lot of freedom. Independent investigators like Bellgincat and others have also documented the damage using satellite imagery. The Israeli government may try to spin the narrative in one way or another, but the details are usually pretty clear.
All media permitted to operate in Israel do so only under heavy reporting restrictions. here The Intercept details some of those restrictions
(4) Weapon Systems-details of weapon systems in .D.F use; O.F equipment that fell into the hands of the enemy (even if your report Is based on enemy news).
"(5) Rocket attacks - it is forbidden to report rocket strikes that struck strategic infrastructure targets such as power plants, gas and water infrastructure
Bellingcat is hardly an independent investigator. Multiple sources confirm it is funded by NATO nations, and cooperates with their intelligence services.
Of course it could be argued that The Intercept and The Grayzone are not independent investigators either, but are you using the same criteria to judge each one of them? Failure to do so is a logical fallacy and an error in reasoning that is not affected by nationality or political affiliation.
In any case the matter is easily settled. The BBC counted at least 9 missile impacts from verified footage on social media. Now go through Israeli media for geo-located details of at least 9 impact sites.
You could go back as far as you like and correlate the number of rocket launches that Israeli media have reported against the number of missile impacts and Iron Dome intercepts reported.
These are some of the tools we must use to avoid being deceived by propaganda. Correlate different sources, check for consistency and accuracy over time.
And in any case my central point remains unchallenged. There is no reason for Israel to make detailed and accurate information about losses suffered and weapons used public knowledge. All warfare IS based on deception, 25 centuries later Sun Tzu remains undefeated.
Interested parties probably now know a lot more about our Aegis Combat System’s effectiveness. Let’s hope the real data remains secret from our adversaries. I do anticipate endless creative speculation.
nice alanysis Ryan but there is also a satellite image of a direct hit in nevatim of what seems to be a fortified airplane hangar / repair shop
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/rknql2sca
I’m sure you’re right as more details have surfaced in the last week or so. Also, I’m Adam, but Ryan has great stuff too!
I expect a big response from Israel. This time it wont be some random remote site, or a houthi facility in Yemen. I predict a strike on Tehran, and on major mil facilities. Including possible nuclear research or future reactor facilities already under construction. Something like Operation Opera against Iraq in 1981.
While its on topic. If Iran keeps this up and using houthi in the Red Sea they are asking for another Operation Mantis.
Are you referring to Operation Preying Mantis from 1988? If so, my ship was on that little deployment, and I can tell you that it would not work now.
Then, in 1988, all the Iranians had were some old American warplanes armed with Exocet missiles, and Swedish speedboats with .50 cal machine guns mounted on them. They attacked with the speedboats and got slaughtered.
Now they have top of the line shore-to-surface missiles and lots of them. They could sink every ship in another Operation Preying Mantis without ever leaving their shelters. The good news is that the Navy KNOWS this, so they're not about to get in range of those things.
Why do you think the aircraft carriers in the failed operation to break the Houthi blockade are staying out of the Red Sea and hanging back in the Arabian Sea or the Gulf of Oman?
That's the one. I realize things have changed. Our weapons have as well. I'm talking about a similar response to a similar aggression. I used Praying Mantis as an example of the scale of response.
It is important to note that any information supplied by official Israeli sources about the effectiveness of the attacks and the damaged suffered is extremely unlikely to be accurate.
Under what circumstances would it be to their advantage to make such information public? Even the smallest detail could be of advantage to their enemy.
"All warfare is based on deception. Even though you are competent, appear to be incompetent. Though effective, appear to be ineffective."
Sun Tzu "the Art of War"
Israel gives access to many international media outlets and grants its own media outlets a lot of freedom. Independent investigators like Bellgincat and others have also documented the damage using satellite imagery. The Israeli government may try to spin the narrative in one way or another, but the details are usually pretty clear.
All media permitted to operate in Israel do so only under heavy reporting restrictions. here The Intercept details some of those restrictions
(4) Weapon Systems-details of weapon systems in .D.F use; O.F equipment that fell into the hands of the enemy (even if your report Is based on enemy news).
"(5) Rocket attacks - it is forbidden to report rocket strikes that struck strategic infrastructure targets such as power plants, gas and water infrastructure
https://theintercept.com/2023/12/23/israel-military-idf-media-censor/
Bellingcat is hardly an independent investigator. Multiple sources confirm it is funded by NATO nations, and cooperates with their intelligence services.
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/11/30/bellingcat-collusion-western-intelligence/
https://thegrayzone.com/2023/05/19/elon-musk-bellingcat-western-psy-op/
Of course it could be argued that The Intercept and The Grayzone are not independent investigators either, but are you using the same criteria to judge each one of them? Failure to do so is a logical fallacy and an error in reasoning that is not affected by nationality or political affiliation.
In any case the matter is easily settled. The BBC counted at least 9 missile impacts from verified footage on social media. Now go through Israeli media for geo-located details of at least 9 impact sites.
https://www.bbc.com/news/videos/cr4x3xnn7w7o
You could go back as far as you like and correlate the number of rocket launches that Israeli media have reported against the number of missile impacts and Iron Dome intercepts reported.
These are some of the tools we must use to avoid being deceived by propaganda. Correlate different sources, check for consistency and accuracy over time.
And in any case my central point remains unchallenged. There is no reason for Israel to make detailed and accurate information about losses suffered and weapons used public knowledge. All warfare IS based on deception, 25 centuries later Sun Tzu remains undefeated.
Peace be with you.