Iran Strikes Israel: My Analysis of What We Know So Far

Iran's October 1 strike on Israel was an even bigger warning that its April 13 strike and a larger indication of the danger it poses.

An Israeli Iron Dome Interceptor launches. Image source

In the late hours of October 1, Iran launched 180–200 ballistic missiles aimed at targets in Israel. The attack reportedly comes as retribution for Israel’s September 27 killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as well as its ongoing incursions into southern Lebanon. Here is what we know so far:

Hypersonic missiles used for the first time

This attack marks Tehran’s first deployment of hypersonic missiles at a foreign adversary. Specifically, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it deployed the hypersonic Fatteh-2 missile, which has a maximum speed of 10,000 miles per hour. Hypersonic missiles are among Iran’s most potent threats as they can evade even the most advanced air defense systems on the planet, including Israel’s Arrow and Iron Dome systems. The IRGC reports that 90% of the hypersonic missiles launched reached their intended targets.

Iran used its domestically built Fattah-2 hypersonic missile on an enemy target for the first time. Image source

Mossad HQ targeted; minimal damage reported; one dead

The Pentagon has released a statement saying that Israel intercepted the majority of the missiles and that the damage in Israel is minimal, although several residential areas report various levels of damage. Reports indicate that Iran aimed some of its missiles at the Tel Aviv headquarters of Mossad – Israel’s foreign intelligence service – but that these did not strike the building.

The targeting of Mossad HQ comes as no surprise. The organization has likely been central to several of the Israeli operations that led to the attack, including the killing of Hamas Political Bureau Chair Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran, the Hezbollah pager explosions, and the killings of top Hezbollah leaders Nasrallah, Shukur, Ibrahim, and others. However, the Iranian barrage’s failure to strike this target indicates a high likelihood that it did not use its hypersonic missiles for this purpose, given their relative success rate compared to the other munitions launched.

Debris from one of the intercepted missiles killed a Palestinian man living in the occupied West Bank. Israel has not reported any other deaths or significant injuries.

Some 100 homes in the northern city of Hod Hasheron report damage from the Iranian missile strike. Image source

Nevatim struck again; other airbases also targeted

Footage obtained from CNN shows several missiles striking Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel, where it also successfully landed missiles in its April 13 attack. At least six missiles struck the facility, which houses all of Israel’s F-35 units. Sources confirm no damage to the buildings or aircraft. Reports indicate Iran also struck airfields at the Hatzeratim and Tel Nof Airbases, the former of which was reportedly from where Israel launched its deadly strike on Nasrallah.

Satellite footage shows some damage to a Nevatim airstrip from the April attack. Image source

US Warnings

I received a WSJ notification on my phone that the US was warning of an impending Iranian attack hours before its occurrence. The warning stated that although Washington was aware that an Iranian attack was imminent, it did not know whether it would occur within a few hours or a few days. The Iranian delegation to the United Nations claims it provided no advanced warning to the United States before the attack.

My take

This strike appears to be another warning by Iran, combined with a desire to save face in light of Israel’s ongoing push into southern Lebanon. It is possible that Iran did indeed provide some warning of its impending attack, but it is impossible to know for sure. The certainty of the warning was similar to warnings issued before the April 13 attack, and Iran could have relayed a message to Washington through diplomatic backchannels: both sides would have ample reason to deny this occurred.

The IRGC likely had a full understanding that Israel would intercept the majority of their munitions. However, their use of hypersonic missiles shows their desire to prove their success in a wartime scenario, as these mostly evaded Israel’s air defenses. Moreover, Iran’s increased targeting of Israeli military installations demonstrates its ability to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and strike critical targets. This strike, which was slightly larger in scope than that of April 13, was a small fraction of Iran’s full missile capability and further demonstrates the potential destruction it could unleash in a full-scale war.