Intelligence failures are often the result of human factors such as information overload and cognitive bias. AI may offer solutions, but only if done right.
Thank you Tarun, intelligence information comes in bunches, daily even hourly when involving National Defense, deciding what is critical and what is not can on occasion costs lives.
The points of this article are very valid, but the Oct. 7th events in Israel might not be the best example for that.
Although the investigation is still to be made to analyze and detail the multiple failures, we know that the military leadership got the relevant information and they chose to silence it and not communicate it to the political leadership. Many in Israel believe that it was intentionally to let the events happen (maybe assuming the magnitude won't be so large), but there are simpler explanations that are not necessarily conspiratorial.
1. All leadership, both military and political, were married to the conception that Hamas is both deterred and satisfied with what was the current balance. Meaning that the intelligence indications were not lost in the white noise created by the overflow of data, but intentionally ignored since it contradicted the conception, and it can be seen by the testimony of several sources from the military saying that they were providing detailed warnings and high officers ordering them to not speak of it anymore or they'll be disciplined. Another example is Halliva, the commander of the intelligence corps in the IDF, who by the way did not rise in ranks through the intelligence community, said in a conference in 2022 that he is predicting silence in the south for the next 5 years and that climate change is a greater threat on Israel than any other national security issue.
2. The military leadership was warned the night before and decided to not communicate this information to the political leadership. The question that arises from this is how much of the political turbulence that was happening in Israel impacted the military leadership decisions.
As I said, the investigation as to what happened and why has not been executed yet, but there are strong indications that the very valid points in this article about the intelligence challenges of our times are not necessarily the ones that manifest in the Oct. 7th event.
Thank you Tarun, intelligence information comes in bunches, daily even hourly when involving National Defense, deciding what is critical and what is not can on occasion costs lives.
The points of this article are very valid, but the Oct. 7th events in Israel might not be the best example for that.
Although the investigation is still to be made to analyze and detail the multiple failures, we know that the military leadership got the relevant information and they chose to silence it and not communicate it to the political leadership. Many in Israel believe that it was intentionally to let the events happen (maybe assuming the magnitude won't be so large), but there are simpler explanations that are not necessarily conspiratorial.
1. All leadership, both military and political, were married to the conception that Hamas is both deterred and satisfied with what was the current balance. Meaning that the intelligence indications were not lost in the white noise created by the overflow of data, but intentionally ignored since it contradicted the conception, and it can be seen by the testimony of several sources from the military saying that they were providing detailed warnings and high officers ordering them to not speak of it anymore or they'll be disciplined. Another example is Halliva, the commander of the intelligence corps in the IDF, who by the way did not rise in ranks through the intelligence community, said in a conference in 2022 that he is predicting silence in the south for the next 5 years and that climate change is a greater threat on Israel than any other national security issue.
2. The military leadership was warned the night before and decided to not communicate this information to the political leadership. The question that arises from this is how much of the political turbulence that was happening in Israel impacted the military leadership decisions.
As I said, the investigation as to what happened and why has not been executed yet, but there are strong indications that the very valid points in this article about the intelligence challenges of our times are not necessarily the ones that manifest in the Oct. 7th event.