Indian Elections: The Limits of Populism in a Rising Global Power

India's latest general election demonstrated the resilience its democracy and the limits of populism as it continues to rise on the world stage.

Thousands of Indians at an election rally in May. Image Source

On June 9, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi took the oath the office for a historic third consecutive term, a feat only achieved by India's first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru. After a decade in power, Modi gained an international reputation as a strongman, populist, and business-friendly leader who has overseen India's economic rise as a geopolitical counter to China. Domestically, Modi is also known for what some perceive as a divisively majoritarian Hindu nationalist movement and cult of personality.

Modi's latest win was a surprise upset, as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its parliamentary majority, forcing Modi to form a coalition government for the first time. The election results demonstrate that India is not immune to broad global trends regarding populism, which could affect its foreign policy moving forward.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) and Opposition Leader Rahul Gandhi (right). Image Source

The world's fastest-growing economy isn't for everyone

India is currently the world's fastest-growing economy, with the number of millionaires and billionaires rising steadily yearly. Companies such as Tesla, Apple, and Amazon consistently invest billions of dollars into the Indian economy to harness its potential as a global technology and innovation hub with a robust manufacturing base. Over the years, the Modi government has pushed for the privatization of various state-owned assets, from energy to infrastructure, cultivating deep relationships with some of the country's top industrialists and family-run conglomerates. His administration has also pushed for market reforms to further liberalize the Indian economy, a process which began in 1991.

Infrastructure development has been a cornerstone of Modi's economic policymaking, with some 83,000 km added to the national highway network, at least 74 airports constructed, and port capacity up by around 70% over the past decade. Further plans include electrified railway tracks and major freight corridors. Another hallmark of Modi's policymaking is his expansion of India's welfare state, wherein he introduced a free grain program to over 800 million people until 2028 and other massive projects covering food, water, housing, pensions, subsidies, and more. These programs have been termed 'Modi's Welfarism'.

India has also gained the attention of Western investors seeking an alternative to China. India and China have long been rivals, and India's current infrastructure development and massive economic returns mirror China's in past decades. Given China's unfolding debt crisis and demographic woes, global perceptions of India have become more bullish. In recent years, India has become the largest beneficiary of ongoing tensions between China and the West.

Despite India's rapid growth, the benefits have not been felt evenly among its populace, which became the world's largest last year. As per some estimates, India's wealthiest 1% own over 40% of the assets in the world's fifth-largest economy, with over 600 million people essentially left behind. Although this growth has also failed to materialize in employment gains – with unemployment up during Modi's tenure – it has raised the cost of living, bringing Modi's close relationship with India's richest under greater public scrutiny. A recent financial scandal allegedly involving the Modi government and the Adani Group, one of India's largest conglomerates, added to the public's worsening dissatisfaction. With the millions of jobs promised by Modi failing to materialize, millions of India's educated youth have been forced into India's booming gig economy, often into positions for which they are overqualified. Although the further expansion of India's manufacturing capacity could alleviate its employment issues, the challenge remains acute for policymakers at present.

India's high growth rates. Image Source.

The limits of majoritarianism

India's longstanding communal tensions and growing polarization came to the forefront in 2014 when Modi was first elected on a right-wing Hindu nationalist platform. In the decade since, communal violence has flared across the country. With Hindus comprising nearly 80% of the Indian population, Modi has capitalized on these incidents by championing the cause of Hindu fundamentalists, building himself up as a god-like strongman in the process. In one instance, Modi referred to India's 200 million Muslims as "infiltrators"; in another, he claimed he was not biologically born.

The latest election results show that voters rejected Modi's brand of majoritarianism to some degree, especially among those marginalized by Hindu caste dynamics in an increasingly unequal society. This rejection of populist majoritarianism was also recently seen in Turkey, where strongman President Tayyip Erdogan's position has been significantly weakened in local elections amid that country's worsening wealth disparity despite his frequent appeals to religious conservatives. These economic and social grievances cut both ways, with Brazilian populist Jair Bolsonaro coming to power amid public discontent over the worsening economy and wealth disparity and losing power due to the same factors. Similar outcomes have recently occurred in South Africa and the European Parliament due to the same factors. Although populist movements can capitalize on broad dissatisfaction with the economy, they can just as easily be swept from power after they fail to produce results. Modi attempted to alleviate some of these challenges by expanding India's welfare state, but India's latest elections show that he, too, is not immune.

India on the world stage

Regardless of India's domestic political shakeup, the country will continue to rise globally as it seeks a permanent seat at the UN Security Council and continues to further its multilateral and bilateral cooperation on defense, the economy, and other matters. India's growing naval presence in the western Indian Ocean, where it takes part in anti-piracy and rescue missions, highlights its ongoing rise on the world stage.  

India will likely continue to face mounting tensions with China during Modi's third term, especially as he has faced criticism from opposition parties due to China's previous incursions into Indian territory. Now at the helm of a right-wing coalition government, Modi will likely face pressure to further militarize India's disputed border with China, which has primarily supplanted Pakistan as India's most serious security threat. India will also likely continue to build regional partnerships, resulting in more weapons deals and military exercises with Western countries and regional allies, among other moves to scale up India's defensive and offensive capabilities.

Although India will likely continue to build partnerships with Russia and Myanmar despite criticism from the West, New Delhi will also likely continue to strengthen its ties with Washington amid shared concerns over China and other factors. However, India's growing assertiveness could continue to result in additional tensions with the West, especially with ongoing state-sponsored plots to assassinate alleged Sikh extremists in Western countries such as the US and Canada. 

Indian Navy personnel with detained pirates after an operation on an Iranian fishing vessel in January. Image Source

Estimates of India's current growth trajectory to become the world's largest growth driver. Image Source

Conclusion

India's latest elections demonstrated the resilience of the country's democracy, which critics alleged was backsliding under Modi's previous tenure. As India continues its rise on the world stage, new voices in its governing coalition will be heard for the first time, potentially pushing the country into an even harder line on China. The election results also show India is no exception to the limits of populism and majoritarianism as an offset to longstanding and unaddressed social and economic grievances. Although some speculate that India will drive global growth in the next few decades, if it fails to address these social grievances, its politics could become hijacked by the whims of various party platforms seeking to distract from them.