Why Ukraine Matters
Why Ukraine is a Critical US National Interest
Zelensky Visits UN, DC in Trip to US
More Cluster Munitions, Still no ATACMS
Kim Returns to North Korea after Visit with Putin
US F-35 Disappears, Crashes - Much Still Unknown
China Conducts Major Exercise Near Taiwan
Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate
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Why Ukraine is a Critical US National Interest
An argument I’ve not seen enough was made this week in the Hill by Joshua Huminski, why Ukraine matters for the United States. My personal opinion is that we’ve for too long settled on fighting for democracy, but those arguments have left out that we do have our own core interests at stake. I think people know that, and recognize that we don’t pursue objectives around the globe out of the kindness of our hearts. We can pursue our own interests and do the right thing, we don’t need to separate those into two distinct categories.
Huminski’s piece argues just that, saying that ignoring the strategic benefit of helping Ukraine succeed in this war leaves open the easy argument that our resources are better utilized elsewhere. He puts forward that Russia’s invasion has upset the stability in Europe that has led to unprecedented economic growth all around the world, and until that stability is returned, the future remains unknown.
He adds that a military weakened Russia is of course in our interest, preventing Putin from pursing similar predatory ambitions in other areas of eastern Europe, Africa or the Middle East. Of course if we only look at it though that lens, then the longer the war drags on the better for us, independent of outcome. Huminski brings this back to argument that we can do what’s best for us, and the right thing at the same time. Allowing the war to drag on, and for more Ukrainians to die, just to serve our national interests is immoral and unethical.
He wraps by saying that there is and always will be an isolationist streak in American politics but that we’re in a place today, like it or not, where events overseas directly impact our way of life. Our economy and standard of life that we’ve come to expect relies on global stability and helping Ukraine to win that peace is a step towards bringing it back.
Zelensky Visits UN, DC in Trip to US
In his second trip to the United States since the start of Russia’s full scale invasion, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the United Nations and met with key US leaders in Washington D.C.
During his UN speech, Zelensky hit on how Russia was weaponizing the global food supply, threatening European energy and kidnapping and deporting Ukrainian children. He added that evil cannot be trusted, pointing to the sudden death of Yevgheny Prigozhin as evidence that Putin does not, and and will not, negotiate in good faith.
While the overall reception in the United Nations was positive, with even some members speaking out against Russia, the mood was slightly different in DC. Zelensky travels to the US capital as skepticism grows in the Republican party about the continuation of aid to Ukraine.
This visit comes at a time when debate around spending and the US government budget is center stage with a possible shutdown looming. This visit, along with the ongoing funding debates and next week’s Republican presidential debate should provide additional context on how the overall aid picture looks headed into the future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/21/us/politics/zelensky-washington-biden-visit.html
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/zelensky-visits-washington-republican/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/full-text-zelenskyys-speech-to-the-un-general-assembly
More Cluster Munitions, Still no ATACMS
The next US military aid package to Ukraine is set to be announced in the coming days and is expected to contain more of the 155mm DPICM cluster munitions but will not include the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). Both have been the topic of debate for some time now with the argument around cluster munitions hinging on the moral/ethical line of the impact these will have to noncombatants after the war has ended whereas the ATACMS debate focuses more around our own inventory and the possible escalation if Ukraine uses these to strike inside of Russia.
The cluster munitions do appear to have proven useful on the battlefield. Feedback from the front lines range from DPICM being incredibly effective against vehicles and troops in the open to others saying the benefit is simply more ammunition.
The argument for ATACMS in the United States has waffled a bit. Ukraine has already received Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles and looks to add the German Taurus soon. Each of these have the ability to range targets inside of Russia and have already been used to strike targets in Crimea without a notable escalation from the Kremlin.
The availability argument is a little more unknown. The US doesn’t make publicly available our munitions stockpiles so it’s hard to say how 50, 100, or 500 of these missiles would affect our ability to defend ourselves in a future conflict. Given the cost of the munition and how few of them we’ve used in the past 20 years, I would think we don’t have a significant amount sitting around but predicting what that number is, and how production capabilities affect that would just be a wild guess.
https://news.yahoo.com/reuters-planned-325-million-us-190907925.html?guccounter=1
Kim Returns to North Korea after Visit with Putin
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has returned home after visiting with Russian president Vladimir Putin this past week. The trip was Kim’s first outside the country since the onset of the COVID pandemic. Notably, Kim chose Russia rather than China for his first international visit in years signaling where he may see greater short term leverage.
It’s expected that Putin discussed the possibility of North Korea sending ammunition to assist Russia in their ongoing war with Ukraine. While that has long been a concern, there is still no concrete evidence that is in the works. It’s also believed that Kim may be using this as an opportunity to ask for assistance with the North Korean space program, supplies for their aging aircraft, and food aid for the populace.
Russia is signatory to multiple United Nations Security Council arms embargos against North Korea that prohibit the shipment of military equipment into or out of the country. While that would usually be viewed as a big line for Russia to cross, given their reception in the United Nations recently, it’s possible they’re viewing those potential violations as manageable in light of the larger issues at hand.
https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-kim-russia-putin-4a5172896e5a060a96d3834a1ad8d37d
US F-35 Disappears, Crashes - Much Still Unknown
A Marine F-35 jet crashed in South Carolina on Sunday after the pilot safely ejected however the aircraft went missing for more than 24 hours before it was eventually located. The aircraft was taking part in a routine training flight after what was described as a ‘mishap’.
The cause for the ejection is still unknown, or at least hasn’t been released. Given the pilot was recovered in stable condition, it’s expected that he would have communicated to the Marine Corps the reason he made that decision and what had gone wrong. Technically the F-35 does have an auto-eject function which means that it’s possible the aircraft made that decision for the pilot which could explain why the incident is still lacking critical details.
Additionally, it appears the transponder, which would help locate the aircraft in flight or during a crash was not working. Scenarios presented to explain this range from the ejection could have cut off power to the transponder to sometimes a second jet in a formation turns it off to avoid extra noise.
Given the ongoing debate around the cost of the F-35 program, it’s safe to assume this event will garner a lot of attention which hopefully means we’ll have a better understanding of what happened in the near future.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/questions-mount-us-fighter-jet-went-missing-rcna105876
https://www.npr.org/2023/09/18/1200093822/missing-f-35-fighter-jet-south-carolina
China Conducts Major Exercise Near Taiwan
Taiwan said that it detected 103 Chinese military aircraft and nine ships in it’s vicinity on Monday marking the largest number of aircraft in a 24 hour period going back three years. Additionally, 40 of the planes crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
As they have in past occurrences, the US and other Taiwanese allies called the maneuvers ‘provocative’ and some have suggested this is more than China just flexing but practicing for a future invasion of the island. As these drills increase in size and frequency it has the potential to exhaust Taiwanese early warning systems. The challenge is that an attack could start out looking just like one of these drills and by the time Taiwan and their partners recognize that, it’s already far underway.
https://time.com/6315231/china-warplanes-taiwan-us-visit/
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230918-taiwan-detects-103-chinese-warplanes-around-island
Armenia-Azerbaijan Tensions Escalate
Azerbaijan says that it has halted it’s military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region after a ceasefire was reached with Armenian forces. The terms of the agreement appear to be that under supervision of Russian peacekeepers, the separatist forces will disarm and disband and talks about the future of the ethnic Armenians in the region will commence.
President Ilham Aliyev, the president of Azerbaijan, said that they had restored their sovereignty with an iron fist after a 24 hour offensive. This is a conflict that has raged for decades so the confidence in a peaceful resolution right now is hard to feel confident about.
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Question: What was the catalyst for you to produce all these current "Awesome!" analysis videos involving the Ukrainian fight? I have been following you for a bit now, and it seems you gained some passion for the geopolitical issues, besides your channel's usual miltary breakdown(which is always very factual and hugely informative). Love the blend and stay the course, especially when winter will be upon Ukrainian lives soon. You are killing it. Mad love homie!