Russia Launches Largest Missile Attack of the War - What Happens if Ukraine Aid Stops

1. Massive Russian Missile and Drone Attack Launched at Ukraine

2. The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine

3. A Divergent View on Israeli Operations

4. Ukraine Sinks Russian Warship

5. A Look at the Information War: Hamas and Israel

6. Iranian General Killed in Suspected Israeli Strike

7. Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: No Easy Way Out for the US

8. Growing Tensions Between Hamas Leadership

9. US Ships, Fighter Down Houthi Drones

10. Islamic State Reactions to October 7th

11. Podcast Recommendations

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1. Massive Russian Missile and Drone Attack Launched at Ukraine

Overnight Russia launched their largest aerial barrage of the war at targets in Ukraine. Officials said that 122 missiles and dozens of drones entered Ukrainian airspace on Friday. The previous high was 96 missiles launched in a one day period in November 2022. Rescue operations are still underway as of the writing of this report but early indications are that at least 12 civilians have been killed with dozens more wounded.

Ukraine says they were able to shoot down 87 missiles and 27 drones while images and videos are emerging showing significant damage to residential structures across the country.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-aerial-attack-missiles-drones-fe3fb596cdea0035573a6a677f17070c

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-launches-massive-air-attack-ukraine-least-10-dead-kyiv-2023-12-29/

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1740711958943318324?s=20

https://x.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1740662540114264341?s=20

2. The Impact of Ending Military Aid to Ukraine

Thought this was a relevant topic as aid to Ukraine continues to be hung up in Congress. This piece from CSIS discusses the potential consequences of the United States reducing military aid to Ukraine, citing the gradual decline in Ukrainian military capabilities as Congress hesitates on funding. It emphasizes the importance of a continuous flow of munitions, weapons, and supplies for combat operations and highlights the impact of declining aid on Ukraine's ability to conduct counteroffensives against Russian forces. The analysis points out that while Ukraine won't run out of ammunition immediately, a reduction in the flow will force prioritization of targets, limiting its military effectiveness.

They get into the components of U.S. military aid to Ukraine, including Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), and funding for equipment replacement. It provides a timeline of aid commitments, indicating a decline in funding starting in August and projecting a significant decrease in equipment deliveries by early summer 2024.

Mark Canclan, the author, explores the possibility of other countries filling the aid gap, noting European commitments but expressing skepticism about their sustained support. The potential consequences of reduced military aid are outlined, including the gradual loss of Ukrainian combat power, increased destruction in cities, and vulnerability to Russian attacks. Canclan suggests that such reductions could lead to a territorial compromise between Ukraine and Russia, with the latter claiming partial victory. The article also addresses the potential continuation of aid without additional funding from Congress, highlighting risks and debates over potential unilateral disarmament.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/impact-ending-military-aid-ukraine-gradual-decline-then-collapse

3. A Divergent View on Israeli Operations

In a new piece for War on the Rocks, Ryan Evans criticizes Israel's military operation in Gaza, arguing that it is strategically and morally unrecoverable. He argues that Israel's maximalist approach, seeking the elimination of Hamas, is unachievable and lacks a clear political outcome for Gaza. The military operation is described as an exercise in collective punishment, resulting in immense destruction and a high non-combatant death toll. Evans calls for a shift in U.S. policy, urging the Biden administration to threaten withholding support unless Israel declares an immediate ceasefire, complies with laws of war, and commits to a positive political program for Gaza. The piece emphasizes the disproportionate impact on civilians in Gaza, questioning the Israeli military's tactics and targeting practices. Additionally, Evans criticizes Prime Minister Netanyahu's handling of the conflict highlighting potential damage to U.S. interests and diversion from other critical global issues. In conclusion, Evans calls for empathy but advocates against sustaining the current Israeli operation for the sake of regional stability and human well-being.

https://warontherocks.com/2023/12/reversing-americas-ruinous-support-for-israels-assault-on-gaza/

4. Ukraine Sinks Russian Warship

Ukraine destroyed the Russian warship Novocherkassk in a missile strike on December 27th. The attack was likely carried out with SCALP or Storm Shadow missiles fired by a Ukrainian aircraft. Original Russian sources confirmed a ship had been damaged but subsequent photos show what appear to be the smoking wreckage sunk in the Crimean port of Feodosia.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/12/26/ukraine-claims-to-have-destroyed-russian-ship-in-crimea-attack

https://news.yahoo.com/nearly-80-russian-sailors-aboard-070700214.html

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67821515

5. A Look at the Information War: Hamas and Israel

The Atlantic Council put together a long study recently looking at how social media has led the information war in the recent conflict in Gaza. They analyzed Telegram, X (formerly Twitter), Meta and TikTok to show how each was and is being used in the conflict.