US Increases Posture in Middle East
US Deploys F-35s and Destroyer to Counter Iran
After a series of attempts by Iran to seize commercial ships in the Gulf of Oman, the US announced they will be sending F-35s and the USS Thomas Hudner to increase security. This comes less than a week after the US announced they were sending F-16s to augment the A-10s already conducting the security mission.
Earlier this month, Iran tried to seize two different oil tankers and opened fire on one of them. In both instances, the Iranian naval vessels backed off when the USS McFaul, a guided missile destroyer, arrived on scene.
https://apnews.com/article/strait-hormuz-iran-ships-fighter-jets-145cd23de53c4aa8eff4ac34026d443f
Chechen Forces Attack Inside of Russia
A group of pro-Ukrainian Chechen forces released a video showing an ambush of a Russian military vehicle, supposedly in Belgorod. Full video of the attack below.
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1681044078123708416
Ukraine Strikes Kerch Bridge
Ukrainian intelligence and naval forces carried out a strike on the Kerch Bridge that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland. Ukrinform reported that a Ukrainian official stated, “a nighttime attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge was a special naval operation conducted by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the Ukrainian Navy”. Adding that according to sources in the SBU, an unmanned surface vessel (USV) was used in the attack.
From images and videos released, it appears that one lane suffered substantial damage but the extent isn’t entirely known. Of note, there is a rail line along the bridge that looks to be in working condition. This rail line is what’s used to bring the majority of Russian military equipment into Crimea. Russia reported that a family was caught in the attack with the two parents killed and the daughter wounded.
Additionally, Russia went on to label the strike a terrorist attack and stated that the repairs would be quickly completed.
The strike comes just as Russia says they are suspending their participation in the grain deal that allowed safe passage of Ukrainian grain exports to a global market. The US and United Nations argue that this will deal a major blow to some of the most vulnerable populations in Asia and Africa.
Russia stated they will be ready to restart the program once their end of the deal is reached. Their stance is that Russian agricultural exports are still heavily impacted by western sanctions, the loosening of which was a key component of striking the deal in the first place.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/drone-boats-used-in-kerch-bridge-strike-reports
https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1680951468067631105
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/17/1188048725/ukraine-russia-grain-deal-putin
The Evolution of The Wagner Group
The Soufan Center just released a great report on how the Wagner Group has expanded it’s global reach, that report is linked below. The report gets into the growth of the organization, that at it’s peak boasted 50,000 members, from Ukraine to Syria to sub-Saharan Africa. According to Dr. Colin Clarke, “in many ways Wagner functions like a Swiss Army knife. The group is versatile and adept. Alongside miliary training and conducting offensive combat operations, Wagner advises governments, conducts information campaigns, and undermines international peacekeeping missions.”
https://thesoufancenter.org/research/wagner-group-the-evolution-of-a-private-army/
North Korea Tests Newest ICBM: Hwasong-18
On July 12th, North Korea conducted the second test launch of their newest ICBM, the Hwasong-18. The missile, with an estimated range of 15,00km reached a maximum altitude of 6,648km during this test. The first test carried out this past April, reached an altitude of 3,000km.
The US, South Korea and Japan all condemned the launch saying that it risked an escalation in tensions. Some analysts believe this launch was carried out to overshadow the recent failed satellite launch in May.
HIMARS Demand In Pacific Region
US allies across the Pacific are watching how the war in Ukraine is playing out and have begun making requests based on lessons learned. Australia and Taiwan are already set to receive their own HIMARS but that supply is finite, so the US is partnering with other nations and working with them to adapt their current equipment to provide a similar long-range precision fires capability.
BG James Bartholomees, Chief of Staff of US Army Pacific, said the demand for joint exercises with the US is growing along with their scope and complexity. He added that while most nations don’t want to house a US missile battery pointed at China, many want the close relationship and training that would serve as a partnered deterrence force.
Podcast Recommendation
Solid episode where Dmitri Alperovitch talks about some things he learned during a recent trip to Ukraine but my favorite is the second half. That’s an ad-hoc interview with Michael Kofman and Rob Lee as they’re traveling to Kyiv. Always solid insights from those two on what has happened and what to look for as the war drags on.