Ukraine Strikes Bridge to Crimea
Ukraine Strikes Bridge To Crimea
Overnight, Ukraine attacked the Chongar Bridge connecting Kherson to Crimea, likely with a Storm Shadow cruise missile. At this point it appears to be damaged but can likely still support any number of vehicles moving across. According to Russian mil-blogger Zhivoff, the bridge supported 70% of all military and civilian traffic between the Ukrainian mainland and Crimea. He adds that while alternate routes do exist, it requires a detour of 100km across unusable roads. His larger concern is the inability of Russia to stop these Storm Shadow attacks leaves this bridge and others susceptible to follow on strikes.
Russia Continues Their Attack in the East
For the last few days, Russian forces, reportedly including the VDV, have gone on the offensive in the east near Kupiansk and further south around Kreminna. It’s believed these attacks are designed to pull Ukrainian forces away from their ongoing offensive in the south. The furthest advance I’ve seen reported is to the edge of the Dvorichansky National Partk, a gain of 4-5km for Russian forces. However, that same map is being passed around and the majority of reporting I’ve seen from the Russian side is simply that the attack is ongoing.
https://t.me/c/1465202821/42269
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1671232103420182537?s=20
Oryx Blog To Cease Operations
The Oryx website and blog used by many to track equipment losses in Ukraine will be ending operations on October 1st, after ten years of running the site. The Oryx team had been using images and videos to confirm losses from both sides in this conflict and has regularly been cited as a reliable resource by government officials and major news publications.
I’m sure some folks will step forward to try to fill the void in this space. For now I can suggest Warspotting. The group operates a bit differently than Oryx. Overall their numbers are going to be a bit lower because they only focus on lost or destroyed equipment whereas Oryx included damaged and captured in their list. From what I’ve seen it’s a pretty solid resource and will list it below for refence.
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/the-end-of-journey.html
BBC Investigation ID’s Over 25,0000 Russian KIA
Pouring through social media, official reports, newspapers and new memorials and graves, the BBC has compiled a report that provides a glimpse into some of Russia’s losses in this war. They note that the typical casualty for the first three months of the war was a 21 year old professional soldier. Over the last three months, March through June of 2023, it’s a 34 year old recruited convict.
The report cites over 2,100 Russian officers having been killed so far including 242 lieutenant colonels or higher. They add that the oldest documented death is that of Mikhail Shuvalov, a retired power plant worker who joined and was killed in December at the age of 71.
The report added that many families are still waiting to hear about their loved ones, not certain if they are alive or dead and if killed, where they’re buried. This has been especially hard for the families of fallen Wagner fighters. When relatives show up to military centers to ask for information, they’re told there are no MoD records of that individual.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-829ea0ba-5b42-499b-ad40-6990f2c4e5d0
Podcast Recommendation
Bill Roggio of the Long war Journal hosted British diplomat Edmund Fitton-Brown in a recent episode talking about al-Qaeda, Islamic State and Taliban dynamics inside of Afghanistan. A recent UN monitoring team report came out with a few interesting findings that these two go into depth on.
Can't help to wonder if or when UKN will drop the Kerch bridge. Do they drop it to trap the RU forces? Or do they leave it up as a "bolt hole" for fleeing RU troops?