Ukraine Retakes Territory As Offensive Continues
Ukraine Retakes Territory As Offensive Continues
Roughly 30-40 square kilometers has been taken west of Vuhledar over the past two days.
Ukrainian Forces Advance - Likely Approaching Main Line of Defense
Over the past 24-48 hours news has begun to trickle in of Ukrainian forces making progress in a few areas across the front, the most notable being west of Vuhledar.
Approximately 40km west of Vuhledar, Ukrainian forces have pushed roughly 6km into Russian positions and have recaptured a few settlements along the way. Neskuchne, Balhodatne, Novodarivka and now Makarivka appear to be under Ukrainian control. This equates to roughly 30-40 square kilometers of territory.
Sort of mixed reactions on the Russian side to this progress. Mil-bloggers report that while the Ukrainian victories in the Vuhledar sector are tactical in nature and at times caused by Russian forces retreating to a secondary line, they are a worrisome trend. The focus appears to be on the settlement of Staromoairske where there is reported fighting ongoing now. War Gonzo questions the quantity of Russian soldiers in the area and asks if the reported number of personnel there are lower than expected.
Igor Girkin also mentioned the Russian abandonment of terrain as Ukrainian forces pushed forward, adding that it was in response to precision strikes that preceded the attack. He adds that that while the advances are relatively minor, there is a risk of Ukraine pouring reinforcements into the area which could threaten a breakthrough in the Russian defenses.
In looking at Brady Africk’s excellent work on mapping Russian defensive positions, I believe there may be another 10+ km before Ukraine reaches some of the more established defensive positions. That’s not to say they haven’t encountered a serious fight already, but many of the trench networks, anti-tank ditches, pillboxes and concrete bunkers appear to be a little further back from the front.
I’ve overlayed (very roughly) the mapped positions to the current situation from DeepState Map for reference.
There are reports of continued attacks north of Bakhmut and in the Tokmak direction, but there are no clear changes in territory there over the last 48 hours.
https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-military-confirms-liberation-of-storozheve-donetsk-oblast/
Russian Volunteer Corps Seeks Recruits from POWs
The commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, Denis (White Rex) Nikitin offered a place in his organization to a group of Russian POWs headed to a prisoner exchange. It’s not clear if this tactic has been used before or how effective it has been. Notably there isn’t a lot of information put out from the RVC about defected or captured Russian servicemembers in their ranks, something that would likely be promoted if true. One man, Vladislav Izmailov, took up Nikitin on his offer to fight alongside the RVC. Izmailov was a convict recruit of Wagner and when this news was made public, Prigozhin called him a traitor saying, “I’m sure he will receive a worthy punishment…I hope we find and kill him in a fair fight.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1668022787821166593?s=20
US Army Retention High As Recruitment Woes Continue
The US Army is once again on track to hit their retention goals, keeping the desired number of existing Soldiers in uniform to meet force requirements. This has been a theme over the last few years as Soldiers are staying in at a consistent rate, sometimes even exceeding expectations, but recruitment numbers continue to wane. While it’s not clear where the Army sits in terms of hitting their 65,000 new recruit goal this year, the Secretary of the Army recently mentioned the service will fall short.
https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2023/06/army-retention-track-even-recruiting-struggles/387321/