Ukraine is Running Out of Time

1. Without Aid Ukraine Faces Tipping Point

2. How to Pave the Way for Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine

3. Failure of the IDF’s Targeting Protocols

4. The Power Vacuum in the Middle East

5. The US is Failing to Adapt in the Drone Wars

6. Islamic State on the March in Africa

7. The New Containment of Russia

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1. Without Aid Ukraine Faces Tipping Point

Two years following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the nation and its Western allies stand at a crucial juncture, grappling with the challenge of halting and reversing further Russian advancements on the battlefield. Despite initial successes like capturing Avdiivka, Russian forces continue to meet obstacles in other areas along the front. Russia's military superiority in manpower, resources, and defense production has expanded. At the same time, Ukraine faces dwindling ammunition supplies and manpower shortages due to funding impasses in the U.S. Congress.

The current state of the battlefield reflects decisions made since late 2022. While Russia mobilized its war economy and constructed extensive defensive fortifications, Ukraine and the West failed to match these efforts. Russia's partnerships with Iran and North Korea have bolstered its arsenal. At the same time, Western aid has fallen short, leaving Ukrainian units rationing critical munitions and experiencing manpower deficits.

Without increased Western military aid and strategic adjustments, Ukraine's position will continue to deteriorate, potentially reaching a tipping point this summer. The risk of running out of Ukrainian units and paving the way for Russian breakthroughs is high. However, there's still hope for Ukraine through urgent action to exploit Russian vulnerabilities and erode their advantages.

Russia's military strength presents a complex picture, with elements of both decline and adaptation. Despite initial setbacks, Russia has revamped its efforts, mobilizing manpower, increasing defense spending, and refurbishing Soviet-era equipment. However, these resources are finite, and Russia's ability to sustain its military might hinge on Ukraine's ability to defend itself.

The erosion of Russia's equipment and ammunition advantages relies heavily on Ukraine's ability to receive the necessary support. As Russia accelerates its attacks, Ukraine's frontline soldiers face mounting risks due to ammunition shortages and manpower deficits. Urgent approval of Western aid, particularly from the U.S., is crucial to bolstering Ukraine's defense efforts.

Without immediate action to address ammunition shortages, replenish manpower, and fortify defensive positions, Ukraine faces a grim outlook. The West's support, particularly from the U.S., is imperative to prevent further bending or breaking of Ukraine's frontline defenses. Time is of the essence in averting further escalation of the conflict and preserving Ukraine's stability.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/time-running-out-ukraine

2. How to Pave the Way for Diplomacy to End the War in Ukraine

The War in Ukraine appears destined to end through negotiations, a sentiment echoed by both Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. National Security Council spokespersons. Despite this consensus, neither side seems ready to commence talks due to perceived barriers to reaching a satisfactory agreement and mutual distrust.

However, all parties must take immediate steps to prepare for future negotiations. Establishing communication channels is crucial as it enables adversaries to discern each other's true intentions amid the fog of war. Initiating dialogue now ensures readiness to pursue peace when the opportunity arises.