Ukraine Attacks Kerch Bridge
Kerch Bridge Under Attack for Third Time
Images and videos began circulating social media on August 12th showing what appears to be the Kerch Bridge engulfed in smoke. Ukraine has not commented on the the suspected strike that connects Crimea to the Russian mainland.
There’s been a mixed reaction from Russian authorities. Some say they shot down 1-2 inbound missiles and that the smoke was a deliberate screening measure. However, Russia’s Foreign Ministry also called this a terrorist attack that would not go unanswered.
Some of the billowing white smoke does is consistent with what you would expect if Russia was trying to create a screen against possible drone attacks. However, that measure wouldn’t be any deterrent against missile or rocket attacks.
This marks the third attack on the bridge since the war began.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66484640
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-kerch-explosion-blast-1819311
Ukraine Retains Foothold Across the Dnipro
News first came out a few months ago that Ukraine had successfully crossed the Dnipro near Kherson and were engaged in fighting with Russian elements there. While this area hasn’t gotten a ton of attention, it’s worth noting that they are still there and appear to have expanded their foothold by a bit.
While there are no indications that Ukraine is planning any sort of major river crossing to mass an attack in this area, it is somewhat behind the main line of Russian defenses in the south. There’s not a lot of strategic value in taking and holding such a precarious position like this across a river unless it is the start point for something else. As mentioned when this news first came out, it’s an area worth keeping an eye on.
A Look at the Battle of Hostomel Airport
Liam Collins, Michael Kofman and John Spencer teamed up to walk through what they argue may be one of the most critical battles so far during the war in Ukraine: Hostomel Airport. Taking the airport was clearly an early Russian objective after the shooting started with troops being shuttled in on helicopter in the early morning hours of February 24, 2022.
The airfield, just 12 miles outside of the capital city of Kyiv, was defended by around 200 Ukrainian national guard soldiers who would face down 34 helicopters and 300 members of the Russian airborne. The major concern for Ukraine was that if this airfield fell, Russia would be able to bring in transport aircraft carrying hundreds, even thousands of additional Russian soldiers in short order.
The authors argue that the Ukrainian efforts to delay the assault long enough to create an airbridge was a major turning point in the war and set the stage for future Ukrainian counterattacks.
Full article is linked below.
Russia’s Artillery War in Ukraine: Challenges and Innovations
The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) put together a great summary of how Russian artillery is operating in Ukraine. Fires is the backbone of the Russian military and generally what operations are centered around, nothing in that regard has changed since the war kicked off. At the start of the war two batteries of tube and one rocket artillery unit were attached to each battalion tactical group. It appears that as the nature of the fighting has turned rather static, artillery has become more of a centralized asset under dedicated artillery brigades.
To nobody’s surprise who is watching this war play out the traditional forward observer in the Russian military has largely been replaced by drones all across the front. The article also gets into the precision fallacy which, personally, I think has grown ever more present with videos and images being shared on social media.
The precision fallacy suggests that precision munitions have led commanders to believe they need fewer munitions because they’re guaranteed to strike a target. RUSI notes that while these laser or GPS guided munitions very well may impact on target, one round doesn’t necessarily mean the target is destroyed or even severely damaged. In turn, events in this war are showing that accuracy alone may not be a replacement for massing fires.
Overall it’s a solid article and rather short. Worth the read.
ECOWAS Forces On Standby, All Options on the Table
West Africa’s regional block ordered the activation of a standby force for possible use against the military junta that took power in Niger. While continuing to press for a peaceful resolution, the group has now made it clear that use of force is on the table.
It’s not clear what the makeup of the force would be or how long it would take for them to assemble but it is a step towards a broader regional war in Africa. As of today, August 13th, it does not appear that the coup leaders have responded to these latest statements from ECOWAS regarding a resolution.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66478430
Documentary Showcases Chinese Preparations for War with Taiwan
An eight-part docuseries released by China focuses on the army’s preparations to attack Taiwan and gives examples of soldiers saying they are ready to give their lives for the task. “Chasing Dreams” showcases a series of military drills and interviews with soldiers about what their role might be in a future war with Taiwan.
“If war broke out and the conditions were too difficult to safely remove the naval mines in actual combat, we would use our own bodies to clear a safe pathway for our landing forces” PLA frogman Zuo Feng said.
Li Peng, a PLA pilot added that his “fighter jet would be the last missile rushing towards the enemy if in a real battle, I had used up all my ammunition.”
35 ISIS Fighters Killed/Captured in July
US Central Command announced that in the month of July, they along with partner forces conducted a total of 31 counter-ISIS missions in Iraq and Syria. The partnered operations resulted in the death of 5 ISIS operatives along with 30 detained.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3487913/
My thoughts on the crossing at Dnipro are that it was either a diversion to try and move Russian forces away from other areas of the front to prevent a potential river crossing (which would never come) or if the Russian’s never reinforced the area to maybe attempt an actual river crossing/build up for a break through. Like you said, there isn’t a whole lot of strategic value in holding this position if it’s not going to be used for something and if the Ukrainian’s are flexible enough I think that’s why they are still dedicating resources for this. See how the Russian’s react to it and then adapt their strategy accordingly.