Ukraine Advances at Bakhmut, Stopped at Tokmak
Ukraine Advances at Bakhmut, Stopped at Tokmak
Fighting continues across the front in the opening days of the Ukrainian offensive
Ukraine Continues The Attack
On June 9th, Ukraine continued their attack with Bakhmut and Tokmak axis seeing the most reported fighting.
The Tokmak axis, which Russian sources believe is the first step on the path to Melitopol, continued to see the focus of the fighting yesterday. Russian forces reported that Ukraine is focused on establishing a springboard with these early attacks in a hope to press forward with follow on elements.
Of note, this is the area where images and videos came out of destroyed Leopard tanks and Bradley fighting vehicles.
A new video was released overnight showing the fight from that location, where some of the crews exit their destroyed vehicles and are successfully evacuated from the fight.
Not much coming out of the Vuhledar axis. This is an area that saw early success with Ukrainian forces likely pressing through the first line of defense into the secondary Russian zone. However, it appears at this point that the lines have generally stabilized with no major change in territorial control.
At Bakhmut Russian media reports that Ukrainian forces have advanced, at times up to 1,400m to the north of the town and that the situation remains tense. It appears that the operation at Bakhmut is a local counterattack sourced from units already in the area. There’s not evidence at this point of the UA reserve elements, outfitted with western kit, taking part in that fight.
While there were early reports yesterday of a Ukrainian attack kicking off at Avdiivka that doesn’t appear to have been anything major. While the fighting is ongoing there, I’ve not seen any reports of a significant offensive operation beyond just localized counterattacks.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1667462371072253952
Great Resource On Russian Defensive Lines
Pasi Paroinen had a great thread on Twitter about a month ago showing the Russian defensive lines in the Tokmak area which just happens to be a focus of the recent Ukrainian attacks. I’ve talked about this in a past video but wanted to resurface it as a resource to better understand what Ukrainian forces are dealing with right now.
Using satellite imagery, Pasi shows that the Russian defensive lines in this area are likely 25-30km in depth. So when you hear that a line was breached, keep in mind what that means in terms of the overall defenses. It’s no longer a single line of infantry like Russia had in certain areas last fall.
Generally speaking, the first line in made up of infantry fox holes and hasty type fighting positions. Not exactly outposts as they’re supposed to skirmish from here but really not overly protected. Many of the drone videos dropping grenades on open trenches are showing this first line. Should give you an idea of how exposed some of them are.
Second line, or zone as Pasi probably more appropriately calls it, is where you start to see the dragon’s teeth obstacles, more minefields, fortified fighting positions, extensive trench networks and gun emplacements. This is the heart of the Russian defense and the primary kill zone where they’ll hope to engage the majority of Ukrainian forces. It appears that some of the recent images of destroyed Bradleys and Leopards may be from this second zone.
The third zone has some of their shorter range artillery, heavy mortars and fortified positions to house the Russian reserves. This could be another 4-5 km behind the second zone but is close enough for reinforcements to move forward during the fight.
Zone four is what Pasi considers the main defensive line with larger antitank ditches and even more gun positions scattered throughout. I’d probably float this as more the last line of defense, as Russia will want to engage the bulk of Ukrainian forces well before they reach this point. The reason for that, is behind zone 5 you run into more reserve and C2 positions that really aren’t designed for any sort of defensive advantage.
https://twitter.com/Inkvisiit/status/1655584386601951238?s=20
Islamic State Claims Two Attacks in Afghanistan
On Tuesday a car bomb detonated in Afghanistan’s northeast Badakhshan Province that killed the deputy governor and wounded ten others. Shortly thereafter, the Islamic State Khorasan Province claimed responsibility for the attack.
Two days later at the memorial service, another Islamic State suicide bomber carried out an attack killing at least 13 people and wounding 30 more.