The Many Dimensions of What's Happening in Syria - Part 1: Great Power Politics

Syria just got really complicated. Here are some things to consider.

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Syria’s recently reignited civil war has drawn in power from around the world that will likely make it much more complicated. Image source

On November 30, Syrian rebel forces retook Aleppo, the country's second-largest city with a population of over two million, for the first time in eight years. This development came shortly after the announcement of a shaky ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, opening up a new theatre of conflict with the potential to draw even more foreign power into the region. Here's a look at the war from the perspective of the international powers shaping it.

The lines are drawn (sort of)

Russia and Iran have been backing the Assad regime since Syria's civil war began in 2011. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), combined with Russian air and ground forces and troops from Iran-backed Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, have proven essential in Assad's fight against various rebel forces, including those aligned with the Islamic State Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Iran and Russia’s efforts to support Assad resulted in a stalemate that began in 2020, and although the fighting subsided, these foreign actors continued to work closely with the Assad regime. However, things have changed considerably in the past two years.

First, Russia's 'special operation' in Ukraine has lasted much longer than anyone in Moscow anticipated, limiting their ability to project power in Syria. Moreover, Israel's recent assault on southern Lebanon has significantly degraded Hezbollah, Iran's largest and most potent proxy. From Russia and Iran's perspective, this latest flare-up in Syria could not have come at a worse time. It was also bad timing for China, which sent companies and personnel at the invitation of the Assad regime to help reconstruct the country last year. Beijing is generally weary of escalations in the Middle East as China relies heavily on regional shipping lanes to meet its energy needs and fulfil global export orders.