The ISKP Thrives in a Disunited World

The Islamic State Khorasan Province's (ISKP) latest attack on Moscow demonstrates the growing threat it poses to global security. But can the world rise to the challenge?

Moscow’s Crocus City Hall set ablaze by ISKP gunmen on March 22. Image source

On Friday, March 22, four men entered Moscow's Crocus City Hall during a rock concert with around 6,000 attendees. The men opened fire on the crowd, killing 137 people and injuring more than 100 others before setting fire to the roof. Russian authorities arrested the perpetrators – all men of Central Asian descent – some 14 hours later. Each of the four severely beaten suspects – one of whom was in a wheelchair and another appeared to be missing an ear - was charged with committing an act of terrorism in a Russian court on Monday.

The attack – Russia's deadliest in decades – was quickly claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an Afghan-based terror group of rising global prominence. Unlike other Islamic State-aligned groups that gained and lost vast amounts of territory over the past decade, the ISKP operates from unknown locations while running an enormous media operation that reaches vast numbers of people in multiple languages. If this latest attack and threats made by the group are any indication, the ISKP may be the world's most potent terrorist threat today and also one that the world is ill-equipped to handle.

Origins and ideology

The ISKP was reportedly founded in Afghanistan in 2014 by defectors from the Taliban, Tehrik e-Taliban (TTP, aka the Pakistani Taliban), and al-Qaeda. It takes the name Khorasan from the historical region of Greater Khorasan, which comprises modern-day Afghanistan and much of Iran and Central Asia. 

The ISKP rose to prominence on April 18, 2015, when a suicide bomber detonated inside a bank in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, killing 33 people and injuring 100 others. The group has carried out many deadly attacks in Afghanistan in the years since, including the 2021 Kabul Airport attack that killed 170 civilians and 13 American soldiers during the U.S. withdrawal from the country.

Unlike other major IS movements, such as those in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Mozambique, the ISKP has never held large territories. Instead, it focuses on carrying out deadly and destabilizing attacks inside Afghanistan and elsewhere, often of the heinous variety, such as the close-range shooting of women and infants at a Kabul maternity ward on May 12, 2020. The group also manages a vast multilingual propaganda operation – a potent tool for recruitment that often serves as a precursor for events to come.

The ISKP's English language Voice of Khorasan magazine offers a potent glimpse into the organization's ideological stances on several issues. Published in full color with gruesome and scandalizing graphics each month, the magazine includes lengthy articles on everything and everyone the group stands against. It is an extensive list. Just as one would expect from radical Islamist propaganda, the Voice of Khorasan is not a fun read; however, it is a go-to for those researching the rising threat that emanates from this group.

The Voice of Khorasan voices many gripes against the major non-Muslim powers of the world. These include the U.S., Western countries, and Israel (labeled "crusaders," "Zionists," etc.) along with China and Russia (labeled "communists" and "atheists") and India ("Mushrikeen" – polytheists). However, their greatest ire is often directed at other groups and states in the Islamic world that they deem insufficiently pious (labeling them "murtad" – or non-believers). These include, but are not limited to, the Afghan Taliban and the governments of Pakistan, Iran, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkey, and others.

The Islamic world is very diverse, and the ISKP's most hated groups range from self-styled Sunni Islamists such as the Taliban, Shi'a Islamists such as the Iranian regime, and governments that embrace varying degrees of secularism, including those of Central Asia and Pakistan. Moreover, The Voice of Khorasan touches on a wide range of contemporary issues, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, The Taliban’s willingness to cooperate with countries such as China, the Afghan migrant crisis in Pakistan, repressive regimes in Central Asia, and the persecution of Muslim minorities in China and India. These rallying causes and the ISKP propaganda inspired by them are potent tools for recruitment and fundraising and may also signal future attacks.

The U.S. is a frequent target of ISKP propaganda in the group’s Voice of Khorasan magazine (above).

Not just an Afghan problem 

Although the ISKP is based in Afghanistan, it is a growing threat internationally. ISKP attacks in Pakistan are by far the group's deadliest outside Afghanistan, with attacks there killing dozens at a time and often targeting religious minorities since they began in 2016. As I noted in a recent article, Pakistan is a frequent target of ISKP propaganda as well and this is likely indicative of further attacks on the horizon.

In Iran, the January 3 ISKP bombings that claimed the lives of over 90 people at a memorial for General Qassem Suleimani in Kerman were the deadliest in the country's post-revolutionary history. Although the U.S. claimed it warned the Iranians of an impending ISKP attack, Tehran's intelligence services were unable to stop it. The January 3 bombing was not the first time the ISKP targeted Iran. Iranian authorities have thwarted multiple attempted attacks inside the country since 2016. On October 26, 2022, an IS-affiliated group killed 15 people in a shooting at the Shah Cheragh Shrine in Shiraz following several weeks of threats from official ISKP propaganda.

Similarly, the ISKP's deadly attack on Moscow this past week came after years of propaganda chastising Russia and the Putin regime for its treatment of Muslims in Chechnya and elsewhere in the country, as well as its foreign interventions in Africa and the Middle East. As with the situation in Iran in January, U.S. authorities reportedly warned their Russian counterparts of an impending ISKP attack. However, this warning was ignored, even after the U.S. issued another public warning to U.S. citizens living in Moscow.

Sifting through ISKP propaganda produces a lengthy list of possible future targets, including the United States and other Western countries. Although Washington continues to ignore the Taliban government and maintains its freeze on billions of dollars of the country's assets, growing concerns over the rising threat of the ISKP are prompting other governments to engage with the unofficial Afghan regime. Countries increasing their cooperation with the Taliban, including on security matters, include China, Russia, Iran, and Uzbekistan. However, with a ruined economy and instability throughout the country, the Taliban continually prove to be an unreliable security partner in the region, particularly amid devastating ISKP attacks in the region.

The unstable situation in Afghanistan allows the ISKP's influence to proliferate. As we have seen with the attacks in Iran and Russia in recent months, the threat it poses continues to expand geographically. With nine individuals arrested in Europe last summer for their alleged links to the ISKP, it appears the group already has plans to extend the geographic range of its operations even further. However, with the Taliban still largely ignored by much of the world, little is being done about the growing ISKP threat emanating from Afghanistan

A propaganda photo released by the ISKP in Afghanistan in 2021. Image source

Conclusion

Unlike previous formidable IS factions that emerged in the past decade, the ISKP has no significant territorial holdings or known primary bases of operations. Instead, it operates elusively, expanding its media reach while carrying out deadly attacks across an ever-broadening geographic scope. Given the group's heinous track record and long list of places it could target, this is becoming a global problem in need of a global solution. However, this is increasingly unlikely in today's fragmented world, where countries brush off warnings of an impending attack from a geopolitical rival.

Last year, I wrote an article claiming that Washington could work with a friendly third country, such as Uzbekistan, to engage the Taliban on security matters. Although the Taliban are indeed distasteful, the growing threat of the ISKP could necessitate such a partnership. With two ferocious attacks outside their traditional base of operations already this year, how many more will it take before a concerted effort is mounted to counter this rising threat? We know with near certainty that the group's next major attack – wherever it may be – will not likely come as a surprise.