Tensions Rise amid China's Military Expansion in the South China Sea

Recent incidents highlight China's unwillingness to stand down when it comes to pressing its claims on the South China Sea. The results for global security could be disastrous.

A China Coast Guard vessel sprays a Philippine fishing boat with a high-powered water cannon in waters Beijing claims as its own. Image source

On June 17, a China Coast Guard (CCG) vessel deliberately collided with a Philippine naval vessel near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef in the South China Sea. According to the Philippines, this incident was yet another Chinese attempt at disrupting a mission to resupply its sailors stationed on the shoal, this time through an "intentional-high speed ramming" that reportedly injured eight personnel. Manilla has released several videos of the incident that show Chinese personnel armed with bladed weapons nearly coming to blows with Filipino sailors. Beijing, which claims "indisputable sovereignty" over the Second Thomas Shoal despite a lack of international recognition, said that the Philippines' "unprofessional conduct" forced it to take measures such as "warnings and blockades, boarding inspections, and forced evictions."

This clash is the most recent example of China's growing aggressiveness in asserting its sovereign claims in the South China Sea. These claims include the resource-rich and strategically important territorial waters in the Philippines' internationally recognized exclusive economic zone along with those of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, and Vietnam. With over one-third of global trade passing through the South China Sea, this increasingly belligerent behavior raises serious risks, including that of a naval standoff that could result in outright war and global supply chain disruptions.

Historical context

The South China Sea, which links the Indian and Pacific Oceans, sees between $3.4 trillion and $5.3 trillion worth of goods transit its waters annually. It is the primary conduit through which Europe, the Middle East, and Africa conduct trade with industrial powerhouses such as China, Japan, and South Korea and contains significant emerging industrial economies such as Vietnam and Indonesia. According to estimates, the South China Sea also contains some 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. These waters are also home to rich fishing grounds, including about 12% of the total global fish catch, and their seafloor contains vast quantities of rare earth metals needed for the ongoing revolution in global green technologies.

China claims sovereignty over almost all islands in the South China Sea and their surrounding waters, citing purported historical claims that date back several centuries, many of which scholars have debunked. China's claims stem from its ambiguous nine-dash line, a nearly 80-year-old map that claims Chinese sovereignty over 90% of the sea, which all other regional countries dispute. Beijing began pressing its claims in 1974 when it first occupied the Paracel Islands, which lie some 220 miles off its southern island of Hainan, following a brief battle with South Vietnam.

In 1988, a unified Vietnam unsuccessfully attempted to retake its claims in the Paracels, resulting in the last major interstate conflict in East Asia. Tensions between Beijing and Hanoi over the islands continue to flare up periodically. Vietnam continues to commemorate and hold protests for the 64 soldiers it lost while trying to retake the Paracels, although both sides have signed codes of conduct for engagement in the South China Sea in 2002 and 2009.

China’s nine-dash line map claims sovereignty over some 90% of the South China Sea and extends into the internationally-recognized exclusive economic zones of five other countries, plus Taiwan. Image source

Evolution of China's gray zone tactics

China cements its claims in the South China Sea by constructing extensive outposts, fully militarizing three islands, and placing all of its claims under the jurisdiction of an 800,000 square mile 'city' called Sansha, which Beijing claims as part of China's southernmost Hainan province. This expansion comes amid Washington's pivot toward Asia to preserve a "free and open" South China Sea, which Beijing views as a direct threat to its status as a regional power.

In recent years, Chinese forces have become more aggressive in asserting their claims as China continues to build semi-permanent structures in other countries' exclusive economic zones. In one example, Chinese forces laid steel markers to assert their claims to the disputed James Shoal, just 80 kilometers off the Malaysian coast in 2013. That year - which also saw Xi Jinping take office - China began harassing Filippino missions to resupply its troops on the Second Thomas Shoal. Since then, Chinese troops have become more aggressive, setting a Vietnamese fishing boat ablaze in one incident. China continues to fine-tune its deployment of a range of coercive tactics to dominate contested areas, including water cannon attacks, using military-grade lasers, ramming the civilian vessels of other countries, and more. Most recently, China has empowered its coast guard to detain foreign nationals in the waters it claims.

China increasingly relies on unofficial maritime militias that pose as fishing vessels, congesting local waterways while reinforcing Chinese claims in the South China Sea. China has artificially constructed more than 3,200 acres of new land in the Spratlys alone and currently possesses over 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys. Several reports have also identified vast networks of runways, weaponry, and storage facilities on these islands.

China’s 800,000 square-mile Sansha City is headquartered on Woody Island in the Paracel Islands. Image source

Security crisis more probable than ever

China's hardened posture, particularly over the past year, is a sign of a looming security crisis likely involving the Philippines and possibly other regional players such as Vietnam, which has recently pushed back against China's claims to its territory. Although Vietnam has sought to engage China diplomatically while balancing relations between Beijing and Washington, the Philippines has deepened its alliance with the US, which includes a mutual defense treaty. With confrontation between the Philippines and China ramping up and Manilla lacking the military means to assert its internationally recognized claims, each incident increases the risk of an all-out war involving US and Chinese forces in the region. However, China's use of unofficial maritime militias offers it the benefit of plausible deniability and time to de-escalate should such a conflict ensue.

Although China's use of grey zone tactics, including maritime militias, offers ample opportunity for deescalation by both sides, Beijing's continued assertion of its claims and the region's growing frustration increases the chance of a major conflict in the long term. However, China's current economic situation ensures it can ill afford a war that blocks it from conducting most of its international trade, potentially giving Beijing an even greater incentive to stand down.

China’s unofficial maritime militia contains hundreds of militarized fishing vessels. Image source

Conclusion

Although China's use of grey zone tactics maintains room for deescalation, regular and intense standoffs ensure that tensions in the South China Sea will remain high for years to come. With competition for resources rising, regional powers growing increasingly frustrated with China's tactics, and US forces increasingly involved, the possibility of an intense conflict looms large over the region and the world.