Tensions Mount in Middle East while Russia, Ukraine Trade Strikes
Tensions Mount in Middle East while Russia, Ukraine Trade Strikes
The Argument Against a Stalemate in Ukraine
Islamic State Strikes Iran
Ukraine, Russia Exchange Blow
Senior Hamas Leader Killed in Beirut
Assassinations and the Erosion of the Rules-Based Order
The Rising International Threat of ISKP
US, Allies Issue Warning to Houthis
Why Gaza Matters
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The Argument Against a Stalemate in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine, often perceived as a stalemate since the failed offensives of 2023, is far from static. Both Ukraine and Russia are racing to rebuild offensive capabilities, with the outcome dependent on materiel, training, and casualties incurred in the coming months. The West, facing a crucial choice, must decide whether to support Ukraine to enable a 2025 offensive or risk ceding an irrecoverable advantage to Russia.
Ukraine's military shortcomings during the 2023 offensive were attributed to insufficient training time, limited collective training, and a shortage of experienced officers. To counter Russia effectively, Ukraine requires not only better training but also significant materiel support. The lack of a clear, sustained commitment from the West may embolden Moscow and undermine efforts to push Russia to the negotiating table.
This article in Foreign Affairs emphasizes the importance of a realistic plan, urging the West to provide resources for Ukraine's defensive posture in 2024 while preparing for offensive operations in 2025. The cost of aiding Ukraine is framed as an investment in domestic defense manufacturing, ultimately benefiting NATO countries. Failure to support Ukraine adequately could lead to dire consequences, including an erosion of deterrence capabilities against China and increased global challenges from Russia. The United States and its allies are urged to recognize the gravity of the decision they face and act decisively to secure Ukraine's future and maintain international norms against border changes by force.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-ukraine-not-stalemate
Islamic State Strikes Iran
Islamic State claimed responsibility for two explosions in Iran that killed nearly 100 people and wounded roughly 200 more during a ceremony marking the anniversary of the death of Qassem Soleimani. In a statement posted on its affiliate Telegram channels, the militant Sunni Muslim group said two IS members had detonated explosive belts in the crowd that had gathered at the cemetery in the southeastern Iranian city of Kerman on Wednesday. "Our enemies can see Iran's power and the whole world knows its strength and capabilities," President Ebrahim Raisi said in a televised address. "Our forces will decide on the place and time to take action".
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/04/world/middleeast/us-isis-iran-general-suleimani.html
https://x.com/LucasADWebber/status/1742970788003598433?s=20
Ukraine, Russia Exchange Blows
In the past week Russia has launched the two largest aerial attacks against Ukraine since the full scale invasion began in 2022 and Ukraine responded by attacking Belgorod on Saturday. Ukraine said that Tuesday’s attacks carried out across the country killed or injured more than 130 people.
Russia says that the Ukrainian attacks into Belgorod killed at least 25 and wounded more than 100. President Putin has promised to intensify strikes on Ukraine as a response to what he described as terrorist attacks.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67869960
Senior Hamas Leader Killed in Beirut
Hamas deputy secretary-general Saleh al-Arouri was killed this week in Beirut, along with two other operatives Hamas Brigade level commanders. Al-Arouri was a key figure in Hamas, known for coordinating with Hezbollah and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He played a significant role in building up Hamas' terrorist capabilities in Lebanon, and his death is a substantial loss for the organization. Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, but Israeli leaders had previously indicated their intention to target Hamas leaders involved in the October 7 attack. The article from the Washington Institute outlines the potential repercussions, including Hezbollah's likely response and the broader implications for the region.
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hamas-leader-dies-beirut
Assassinations and the Erosion of the Rules-Based Order
RUSI dives into a sensitive topic in a recent article where they discuss a shift in the practice of nations publicly announcing assassinations. Two recent incidents include the killing of former Ukrainian MP Ilya Kyva in Russia and the alleged vow by the head of Israel's Shin Bet to eliminate Hamas members globally. They outlines ten incremental steps in the evolution of this practice, pointing to instances where Western countries have been implicated in assassinations. The article suggests that these mixed messages on assassination contribute to the perception of Western hypocrisy and challenge the notion of a "rules-based international order." They emphasize that collectively, these steps have led to a deterioration in the political and moral conduct of international relations.
The Rising International Threat of ISKP
The Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) has recently expanded its ambitions beyond its Afghanistan-Pakistan base, attempting international attacks in India, Iran, Germany, Austria, Spain, the Maldives, Qatar, Turkey, and Kyrgyzstan. While some ISKP-linked plots were foiled, the group has successfully conducted attacks inside Iran and intensified its assaults on foreign interests in Afghanistan. Notable incidents include a suicide bombing against American troops in Kabul, rocket attacks into Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, assaults on embassies, and targeting Chinese nationals. The article highlights increased ISKP external operations, with arrests in Germany and Austria revealing Tajik suspects linked to the group's plans to attack churches during the Christmas and New Year period.
US, Allies Issue Warning to Houthis
The United States and 12 allied nations issued a warning to the Yemen-based Houthi’s this week to cease their attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea or face potential military action. The Houthi’s have carried out at least 23 attacks since December 19th with their stated goal of supporting the Palestinian people in Gaza. A US official said the Houthi’s should not expect another warning, adding that international patience was wearing thin.
https://apnews.com/article/us-israel-hamas-houthis-red-sea-fef8d446852b6eae33d38ffd8f6b2d64
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-led-coalition-warns-houthis-to-stop-ship-attacks-cfd490df
Why Gaza Matters
After nearly three months of Israel's war on Gaza, the territory has returned to the center of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Previously isolated due to an air, sea, and land blockade imposed by Israel, the October 7 attack by Hamas exposed flaws in the assumption that Gaza could be excluded from the regional equation. The war has reset the Palestinian question, emphasizing the importance of Gaza in future negotiations.
A new article in Foreign Affairs traces Gaza's importance from ancient times, through various rulers and empires, to its role in Palestinian nationalism during the British Mandate. The establishment of the Gaza Strip after the 1948 Arab-Israeli war and the ensuing refugee crisis set the stage for its complex political dynamics.
They explores key events, including the Gaza occupation in 1956, the second occupation in 1967, and Israel's unilateral withdrawal in 2005. The rise of Hamas, the blockade since 2006, and the current conflict are discussed, emphasizing the denial of Gaza's historical identity as a contributing factor to the ongoing crisis.
The author suggests that for peace and prosperity in the region, Gaza must reconnect with its historical role as a prosperous crossroads. Ending the siege, implementing redevelopment strategies, and demilitarizing the territory are proposed as crucial steps toward a two-state solution.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/why-gaza-matters
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