Starlink: The Latest Advance in Military Technology with Unforeseen Consequences

Launched just five years ago, Starlink is a name of growing prominence in the area of military technology. Here's what you need to know.

Starlink provides high-speed internet access to much of the earth’s surface via satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO). Image source

One Russia-based online retailer who identified himself to the Wall Street Journal only as 'Oleg' sells Starlink satellite internet terminals to Russian soldiers in what he calls 'the new territories' – also known as Ukraine. Although he used to sell vacuum cleaners and car phone mounts mostly, now he makes most of his living selling these advanced devices despite the international sanctions on his country.

Oleg is not alone. One Russian website, Topmachines.ru, advertises Starlink sets for 220,000 rubles (around $2,200) plus a $100 monthly subscription fee. Reports indicate that Russian troops have access to thousands of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, which they reportedly procured from various intermediaries to evade international sanctions. Once hailed as a significant and exclusive advantage in Ukraine's war effort, Starlink is now increasingly in the hands of Russian forces, producing unforeseen battlefield consequences.

Far beyond the battlefields of Ukraine, Starlink is a game-changer at the forefront of advances in military technology. In this article, we examine the purpose and function of this technology, its current usage, and its potential usage moving forward.

What is Starlink? 

Launched by SpaceX in 2019, Starlink offers high-speed internet from "almost anywhere on earth," according to its official website. This connectivity is achieved via a receiver that links to an ever-increasing number of satellites orbiting 342 miles (550 kilometers) above Earth's surface, providing access to around 2.6 million users worldwide. There are currently over 5,700 Starlink satellites in orbit, each with a lifespan of just five years. With new launches regularly, SpaceX has permission to have as many as 12,000 satellites in low-earth orbit (LEO) and recently applied to have as many as 30,000. China, already concerned about the ramifications of this technology, plans to launch nearly 13,000 satellites to keep SpaceX from "hogging low-orbit resources."

Starlink provides fast, reliable internet access outside the global fiber optic network with signals that are difficult to jam: this offers a broad array of military applications and advantages, including communications, mapping, and more. Undersea fiber optic cables currently account for some 95% of global internet traffic, and as the Houthis recently demonstrated, these cables are highly vulnerable to sabotage. Moreover, with China cutting off subsea cable access to parts of Taiwan, the threat that states could sabotage each other's internet access poses a threat to global connectivity. This way, Starlink provides a powerful alternative in a world of growing instability.

Starlink's expanding global presence notably excludes several countries with poor relations with the United States. These include major geopolitical rivals China, Iran, and Russia, less powerful rivals such as Cuba, North Korea, and Venezuela, and state terrorism sponsors such as Syria and Afghanistan. Theoretically, this excludes these geopolitical rivals from accessing the network while allowing reliable access to America's allies. However, in practice, the distinction becomes much murkier.

According to its official website, Starlink is available or about to be available in most countries worldwide. Note the exceptions. Image source

Ukraine and beyond

The first batch of Starlink terminals arrived in Ukraine on February 28, 2022 – just four days after the Russian invasion – with SpaceX CEO Elon Musk promising that more were "en route." Two years later, Starlink has become an essential tool for Ukraine's war effort, enabling civilian and military commutations as well as the growing presence of drones, an area where Ukraine has made many decisive gains. However, controversy emerged in 2022 when Starlink refused to extend service to Crimea during a Ukrainian maritime drone attack on Russia's Black Sea Fleet, causing the units to lose connectivity and wash ashore "harmlessly." According to Elon Musk biographer Walter Isaacson, the SpaceX CEO made this decision because he thought it would cause a major war. Regardless of the moral implications of this incident, private control over such a crucial piece of military technology raises several concerns.

Russia's increased use of Starlink systems is another significant source of controversy. Ukraine's top military intelligence officer, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, claims that Russian troops were using thousands of Starlink terminals in Ukraine as of this February. On February 11, Musk denied selling Starlink products directly or indirectly to Russian buyers, whom sanctions forbid from purchasing the product directly. Two days later, Ukrainian officials alleged that Russian buyers had purchased the Starlink units from Arab countries, releasing audio tapes that allegedly record Russian soldiers discussing how they obtained the system. Although Musk previously described Starlink as offering Ukraine a "major battlefield advantage," Russia's use of the system appears to have eroded this substantially.

Russia has always maintained a battlefield advantage in Ukraine regarding firepower and personnel. Still, Starlink allowed Ukraine to 'punch above its weight' by securely accessing the internet from anywhere to launch highly successful drone attacks. Ukraine also relies on Starlink for civilian functions such as running hospitals, businesses, and aid organizations. With Russia now reportedly using thousands of Starlink terminals in Ukraine, their communications are likely more secure and more challenging for Ukraine and its allies to hack. Moreover, Starlink's connection speed is reportedly much slower than before, apparently due to the rise in Russian usage, which some claim has doubled the number of users in Ukraine.

With global coverage growing steadily, Starlink is a much-debated topic in many of the world's most militarily contested regions. In Sudan, Russian mercenaries use Starlink systems in their effort to aid the controversial Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the country's ongoing civil war, which has claimed thousands of civilian lives to date. In Israel and the occupied territories, SpaceX was granted permission to operate in parts of Gaza for uses such as field hospitals, but only after negotiations wherein SpaceX agreed to a series of measures to prevent usage by Hamas.  

In Vietnam, talks with SpaceX halted last November when the Vietnamese Communist Party refused to soften their stance on Starlink's foreign ownership. Before this, the Vietnamese Coast Guard used Starlink to guide drones in the South China Sea, parts of which are highly contested between Vietnam and China. Vietnam also claims it needs satellite internet to provide access in its mountainous northern reaches, much of which are also contested by China. In Brazil, criminal groups have already been found to have Starlink terminals at illegal mining sites. The likelihood of major crime organizations accessing this technology elsewhere in Latin America and globally  - if they haven't already - grows daily.

This broadening use of Starlink in international conflict zones, its unintended use by enemy forces, its status as owned by a private corporation, and its adoption by criminal organizations will likely be subjects of much debate in the coming years.

Starlink terminals are now commonly found on both sides of the war in Ukraine. Image source

The big picture

As mentioned in one of my previous articles, artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled drones are the most important technological means by which the U.S. and its allies can counter the anti-access area denial (A2AD) strategies of countries such as Iran and China. A2AD relies on advanced missile and drone technologies to deny vast space to an advancing military. These advanced weapons may be stopped – at least in theory – by technological advances in areas such as AI-enabled swarming drones. These swarms may even be capable of intercepting hypersonic missiles, which can effectively penetrate most air defense systems and are currently possessed by China, Iran, and Russia. By offering broad geographic connectivity to these potential swarms, Starlink will likely play a crucial war in developing and using these weapons systems moving forward.

By offering connectivity in practically any potential global conflict zone, Starlink is helping to advance AI warfare. However, like every significant military technological advance, maintaining exclusive control over it is practically impossible. Moreover, with so many AI technologies currently in the experimental stages, the consequences of their potentially uninterrupted usage across the globe remains unknown.

AI swarming drones, enabled by Starlink, are likely to play a big role in future conflicts. Image source

Conclusion

Starlink offers so many potential advantages that no armed group – state or otherwise – will likely be able to ignore it in the near future. Moreover, the crucial role Starlink will play in AI warfare will likely make it an area of growing concern for governments worldwide. With new satellites launching monthly and its coverage area expanding steadily, Starlink will likely take a defining role in military and civilian institutions in the coming years. That it is steadily falling into the hands of unintended actors is likely only the beginning of the unforeseen consequences that will need to be addressed moving forward.