Russia's War Plans in Ukraine for 2024

1. Russian Military Objectives in 2024

2. Islamic State Response to October 7th

3. Roles and Missions for Drone Swarms

4. Considering the US Presence in Syria

5. Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait

6. The Day After Hamas

7. North Korean Arms Sales

8. Russia and the ‘Axis of Resistance’

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1. Russian Military Objectives in 2024

A new article by RUSI delves into Russia's strategic objectives, military capacity, and industrial capacity concerning its conflict with Ukraine.

Russian Strategic Objectives: Russia aims to subjugate Ukraine, believing it is winning. Surrender terms include ceding territories, preventing NATO accession, and controlling Ukraine's leadership. The plan involves military pressure to drain Ukrainian resources, followed by offensives to gain leverage for negotiations. The goal is victory by 2026, with potential expansion of goals if successful.

Russian Military Capacity: The Russian military, initially disorganized, has grown to 470,000 troops in occupied territories. It faces attrition but maintains a steady tempo of attacks, utilizing traditional Soviet tactics with adaptations due to officer shortages. Despite casualties, recruitment sustains force levels, allowing consistent pressure on Ukraine.

Russian Industrial Capacity: Russia has mobilized its defense industry, increasing production of tanks, armored vehicles, and missiles. However, reliance on refurbished equipment and Western components poses limitations. Ammunition manufacture is a critical issue, with shortfalls expected in 2025. Supply contracts with various countries mitigate shortages but may not suffice in the long term.

Conclusions: Russia's theory of victory relies on weakening Ukraine's defense support. If Ukrainian partners maintain aid levels, Russia may struggle to achieve significant gains. Without improvement in force quality, Russia's prospects decline post-2026 due to attrition and industrial disruptions. Upholding Ukrainian resistance through 2025 can undermine Russia's strategy and provide time for qualitative improvements in Ukraine's defense.

https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/russian-military-objectives-and-capacity-ukraine-through-2024

2. Islamic State Response to October 7th

Hamas' surprise attack on Israel on October 7th served as a global platform for various jihadist groups, such as Haya’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda, to reinvigorate recruitment and propaganda. In contrast, the Islamic State (IS) initially responded slowly due to its ideological focus on establishing a caliphate and territorial control, rather than prioritizing the Palestinian cause. The group has criticized Hamas for its nationalist agenda and alliance with Iran.