Russian Nuclear Plans Show Chinese Targets

1. Russian Nuclear Plans Leaked

2. A Look at North Korean Weapons Transfers to Russia

3. Should the US Leave Iraq?

4. Autonomous Weapons are Coming

5. Western Security Assistance on the Defensive in Ukraine

6. Crumbling Domestic Support for Iran’s Regime

7. Ukrainians Are Becoming Pessimistic

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1. Russian Nuclear Plans Leaked

Leaked Russian military files reveal that Vladimir Putin's forces have rehearsed scenarios involving tactical nuclear weapons in potential conflicts with major world powers, including China. The documents describe a lower threshold for using such weapons than Russia has publicly acknowledged, with criteria ranging from enemy incursions on Russian territory to specific triggers like the destruction of strategic assets. Despite a treaty with China, suspicions of Chinese aggression persist in Moscow, reflected in military exercises simulating a Chinese invasion. Russia's military doctrine emphasizes the role of nuclear weapons in defense, with training materials outlining conditions for potential nuclear strikes. Putin's statements suggest a reluctance to use tactical nuclear strikes, but Russia maintains a substantial arsenal. While Russia has drawn closer to China, it continues reinforcing its eastern defenses amid concerns over Chinese expansionism. The documents suggest a strategy of "escalating to de-escalate," using tactical nuclear weapons to prevent broader conflicts. This approach may have influenced Western reluctance to arm Ukraine more decisively. However, Russia likely maintains a higher threshold for nuclear use against Ukraine, fearing escalation and direct intervention by Western powers.

https://www.ft.com/content/f18e6e1f-5c3d-4554-aee5-50a730b306b7

2. A Look at North Korean Weapons Transfers to Russia

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has brought attention to the critical importance of ammunition supplies, with reports indicating significant transfers of munitions between North Korea and Russia. Commercially available satellite imagery, analyzed by CSIS, has revealed extensive vessel movement between Najin in North Korea and the ports of Dunai and Vostochny in Russia. These voyages have facilitated the transfer of over 2.5 million rounds of artillery shells and other munitions since August 2023.

In recent weeks, observers logged at least 25 visits to Najin for munition loading 19 "dark vessels" visited Vostochny Port, indicating covert activities to avoid detection. Infrastructure expansion efforts at Tikhoretsk, Mozdok, and Yegorlykskaya in Russia suggest plans to store ammunition closer to the front lines. Rail crossings between North Korea and Russia, such as Tumangang-Khasan, have seen increased activity, possibly facilitating munition transfers.