'Realistic Possibility' Ukraine Breaks the Russian Lines

DIA official says limited ammunition and weather likely to be determining factors

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How the Pentagon Assesses Ukrainian Progress

A rare interview with the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) official came out this week, a little under the radar. Trent Maul is the director of analysis for the DIA who’s role is to determine the military measure of America’s enemies. He acknowledges in the piece that recent failures to around the fighting will of Iraqi and Afghan forces may have forced them to overcorrect when determining Ukrainian capabilities at the start of the war.

He says that on paper Ukraine was overwhelmed but what has come out since is a need to better understand national factors that can affect the battlefield. He cites the difference between Afghan president Ghani fleeing Kabul and Ukrainian president Zelensky staying in Kyiv and how that directly influences the fight. Overall, these items, along with morale, strength of command and control, logistical and medical support are all factoring into future assessments more than they have in the past.

He adds that the DIA will be watching for signs as to whether Russia can keep up the flow of artillery ammunition and maintain leadership at the lower levels. He says US and Ukrainian officials failed to appreciate the depth of Russia’s defenses and how hard it would be for Ukraine to smash through during this offensive. Additionally, he states that Ukraine’s ability to continue their advance relies on their stockpile of ammunition and the weather.

In closing, Mr. Maul says that Ukraine’s recent successes are significant and says it’s a probability that Ukraine can break the remaining Russian lines by the end of the year. However he warns that limited ammunition and worsening weather will make this very difficult.

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/09/06/how-the-pentagon-assesses-ukraines-progress

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