A bit of off the cuff analysis on the latest Israeli strikes on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, the current state of the Middle East, Somalia, the war in Sudan, and the geopolitics of natural gas
This operation demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of leading-edge air power. A 5th gen air force can affect a strike, even against an opponent with a ‘near-peer’ air defense but cannot sustain air dominance. The destruction of equipment and expenditure of ordinance becomes a tactical wash. The strategic result however is political and economic pressure which relatively weak actors exploit by leveraging complacency, fear, ignorance, and stupidity. Generations have blithely embraced the delusion of enlightened utopian policies that have produced a weak willed populous with representative leadership. Now they clutch at their pearls when watching Israel and Ukraine respond to their existential threats. “How barbaric!”
So far, we've seen only brief a brief disruption to Israel's gas pipeline to Egypt last year and annual supplies are projected to increase until at least 2026. Egypt is a net importer of gas, which it needs for its growing domestic market. Egypt is also an important hub for Israel's export market as it maintains a sizeable LNG production facility in Damietta, on the Mediterranean coast. This facility, combined with Israel's own offshore LNG facility at Hadera make Israel an emerging player in the global LNG market (it just became a net gas exporter in 2020). So far, the Egyptian government remains committed to keeping Israeli gasflows, but the ongoing war presents significant risks politically.
LNG deep dive sounds interesting! Looking forward to reading/listening to it.
Love it. Very interested in the economics of the military and energy industries.
This operation demonstrates the capabilities and limitations of leading-edge air power. A 5th gen air force can affect a strike, even against an opponent with a ‘near-peer’ air defense but cannot sustain air dominance. The destruction of equipment and expenditure of ordinance becomes a tactical wash. The strategic result however is political and economic pressure which relatively weak actors exploit by leveraging complacency, fear, ignorance, and stupidity. Generations have blithely embraced the delusion of enlightened utopian policies that have produced a weak willed populous with representative leadership. Now they clutch at their pearls when watching Israel and Ukraine respond to their existential threats. “How barbaric!”
Very interested in a think piece on natural gas.
Regarding global gas markets, how do Israel's gas reserves and the fact that it is selling gas to Egypt play into this?
So far, we've seen only brief a brief disruption to Israel's gas pipeline to Egypt last year and annual supplies are projected to increase until at least 2026. Egypt is a net importer of gas, which it needs for its growing domestic market. Egypt is also an important hub for Israel's export market as it maintains a sizeable LNG production facility in Damietta, on the Mediterranean coast. This facility, combined with Israel's own offshore LNG facility at Hadera make Israel an emerging player in the global LNG market (it just became a net gas exporter in 2020). So far, the Egyptian government remains committed to keeping Israeli gasflows, but the ongoing war presents significant risks politically.
Hamas wants a regional war.