No Clear Leader for al-Qaeda A Year After Zawahiri's Death
No Clear Leader for al-Qaeda A Year After Zawahiri's Death
Zawahiri’s Successor Not Yet Clear
After a drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri a year ago, questions emerged about who would then take over the organization. Zawahiri was the clear successor to bin Laden but there isn’t anyone who similar this time around. While al-Qaeda has not yet publicly confirmed that a new emir has been designated, a recent UN Sanctions Monitoring Team report cited that Sayf al-Adl has emerged as the de facto leader of the group.
Adl supposedly does not have widespread support within al-Qaeda due to his long stints in Iran but he may have countered that by moving back to Afghanistan after the Taliban took power. His move is a theory and has not been confirmed.
Also believed on the short list are two members of the al-Qaeda Shura Council, Abd al-Rahman al Maghribi and Hamza al-Ghamidi.
Al-Maghribi, a Moroccan national, joined al-Qaeda in 1999 and worked in bin Laden’s headquarters on their propaganda efforts. Maghribi is believed to have moved to Iran at some point in the recent past, likely raising some of the same concerns that surround Adl and when he was offered the position of deputy to the ‘general manager’ in 2010 he declined which may suggest he’s not interested in taking the helm.
Al-Ghamidi originally fought with bin-Laden in the 1980’s in Afghanistan and served as the commander of bin-Laden’s personal bodyguard. It’s reported that al-Ghamidi is the one who drove bin-Laden from Tora Bora when it was under assault by US forces in late 2001. Ghamidi is believed to have overseen al-Qaeda operations in Afghanistan after the 2001 invasion where he maintained close ties with the Taliban.
It’s generally believed that a new leader has emerged but has not been announced. A leading cause for that may be that Zawahiri’s death in Afghanistan has still not yet been confirmed by al-Qaeda or the Taliban. As al-Qaeda is working to restore ties with their allies, notably in this case, the Taliban, appointing a new heir confirms that their previous leader was in fact killed in that Kabul strike
https://jihadology.net/2023/06/26/guest-post-al-zawahiris-line-of-succession/
Putin Addresses the Wagner Mutiny
A few notes from his speech to the Russian nation.
“An armed mutiny would have been suppressed in any event. Mutiny plotters, despite the loss of adequacy, were bound to realise that. They understood everything, including the fact that their actions were criminal in nature, aimed at polarising people and weakening the country, which is currently countering an enormous external threat and unprecedented pressure from the outside. They did this at a time when our comrades are dying on the frontline with the words “Not a step back!””
“Today, you (Wagner fighters) have the opportunity to continue your service to Russia by signing a contract with the Defence Ministry or other law enforcement or security agency or return home. Those who want to are free to go to Belarus. I will keep my promise. Again, everyone is free to decide on their own, but I believe their choice will be that of Russian soldiers who realise they have made a tragic mistake.”
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/71528
“The Imperial US is the Destroyer of Peace”
North Korea held a rally on Monday June 26th across the capital city of Pyongyang marking the 73rd anniversary of the outbreak of the Korean War. Photos released by North Korean state media showed signs reading, “The whole US mainland is within our shooting range”, and “The imperialist US is the destroyer of peace”.
Pentagon Error Provides $6.2 Billion In Additional Aid to Ukraine
The Pentagon announced last week that they had overvalued the weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine by $6.2 billion over the last two years. As a result, the US is further from the cap dictated by the President and Congress and will be able to send more aid to Ukraine before the end of the fiscal year.
This is not ‘found cash’ but rather a change in valuations of equipment already provided. This accounting error means that the US has to date provided roughly $34 billion in aid since the start of Russia’s full scale invasion.
US Operations in Syria and Iraq
During the month of May, Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve conducted 38 operations against Islamic State targets. Those operations resulted in 31 ISIS members detained and 8 killed. All were partnered operations with local security forces of the respective countries.
Podcast recommendation
Dmitri Alperovitch answered some questions on his recent podcast about what happened during this recent Wagner event in Russia. He gets into some history of Prigozhin’s rise to power, his thoughts that the actual terms with Putin aren’t known and what this all means going forward for Russia.