Ninja Bomb (Hellfire R9X) Used in Syria Strike
Ninja Bomb (Hellfire R9X) Used in Syria Strike
Status of the Defeat-ISIS Mission in Iraq and Syria
US Central Command released their rollup of operations in June to defeat Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Throughout the month 37 total partnered operations were carried out resulting in 13 ISIS operatives killed and 21 detained. Additionally, the US released on July 9th, that a drone strike killed IS leader Usamah al-Muhajir in eastern Syria.
Videos and images were circulating Syrian social media channels of al-Muhajir cut in half which led many to believe the Hellfire R9X was used in the strike. Graphic image of the aftermath can be found here.
https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/3452128/
https://twitter.com/p_vanostaeyen/status/1678066177799495683?s=20
https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1678130348352208896?s=20
Breakdown of DPICM By Fire Support NCO
Dillon Payton, a former 13F in the US Army, put together a great thread on Twitter explaining what DPICM is, what it isn’t, and the munition’s limitations. On a random aside, I absolutely love that he put this together. When I was a company and then battalion fire support officer for the 101st in Afghanistan, my first stop with any question was my Fire Support NCO. SGT Smith was a lifesaver for brand new 2LT Stewart and I can just hear him rattling off the information below from memory. Makes me happy to see one of the many fire support experts in our military sharing knowledge like this.
The below is pulled directly from his report, if you’re on Twitter the link is at the bottom.
Let’s discuss doctrinal terms that are relevant. 0.1% Probability of Incapacitation (POI) describes the minimum range at which you can employ munitions and risk fratricide to friendly troops or non-combatants.
Risk-estimated distances (REDS) are the distances describing POI’s based on employed munition, range of firing unit to target, and degree of protection for said individual/group.
Let’s focus on M438A1 DPICM employment zones. The intended effects are to damage or render inoperable light vehicles or lightly skin vehicles such as KAMAZ-4310’s and GAZ-2330’s for example. At minimum range, their disbursement is 50x100 at maximum, 100x120m
The image below is my fat fingering of the employment zone (100x120m) in some park in Bakhmut for DPICM fired at the firing unit’s max range. It’s laughable how small it is in relation to the rest of the park let alone Bakhmut.
To give critics credit, being within the employment zone doesn’t mean you’re out of danger. That’s where REDS come in. The REDS on M438A1 standing (which no one will be in the open in all reality) is anywhere between 225m-410m depending on the range.
Now we have some problems. Depicted below are the REDS for DPICM with the firing unit at max range for personnel standing in the open. I want to emphasize that the employment zone (center of park) doesn’t change in size, just it’s potentially lethal effect.
“Fire support is an art, not just a science”. It is the responsiblity of the fire support unit and commander in charge of the AO to employ the munitions with the greatest risk-reward payoff. Remember, these are minimums where you start thinking about fratricide. Some great uses for DPICM: radar/air defense sites, light vehicle assembly areas, ammunition depots, infantry in the open, fuel depots, unit support areas.
Some not great uses: Russians in a trench and/or with overhead/uneven cover.
Let’s discuss some complicating factors. dud rate for ICM’s are 2-3% and it only goes higher in forest and mountainous terrains. No you won’t just step on a submunition and be maimed (lack of pressure plate unlike in mines). I want to stress that I am not minimizing the hazards posed by unexploded ordinance. But the idea that a kid is going to dig one up from the ground or step on it and be killed is absurd.
The bulk of Russia’s infantry in an entrenchment probably aren’t hanging out in the open. They’re in bunkers, dugouts, behind parapets etc. All adequate cover from DPICM for reasons that have been aforementioned already. I’ve also heard talk of DPICM being used to clear mines. While it does have an employment zone similar to a MCLIC, the shaped charge submunition is only designed to penetrate by 4cm. Not nearly enough to detonate AT mines but it could have few effects on shallow AP mines.
https://twitter.com/dillonrpayton/status/1677785048446283776
Captured Azovstal Defenders Return to Ukraine
During his visit to Turkey, President Zelensky picked up five commanders and brought them back to Ukraine. The officers who helped organize the defense of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol, surrounded to Russian forces in May of last year. They had been moved to Turkey in September as part of a prisoner swap with Russia’s understanding that they would remain there for the duration of the war.
Zelensky gave no reasoning as to why the prisoners were able to return home now but Moscow wasn’t pleased. Press Secretary Peskov said that this was a violation of the terms by both Ukraine and Turkey and that Russia was not notified of the move.
In a speech following their release, Lieutenant Colonel Denys Prokopenko stated, that, “we will definitely have our say on the battlefield”.
Key Topics at NATO Summit
The annual NATO Summit meeting will take place in Vilnius, Lithuania kicking off on Tuesday July 11th. Usually most of the contentious issues are at least addressed before the meeting so representatives aren’t ambushing one another over the course of the 48 hour session. That gives us an idea as to what we might in terms of announcements or updates to look for when this wraps up.
I expect Ukrainian NATO membership will be a key topic of discussion but this will be a time for advocates to move that ball forward, rather than strike any sort of deal. There doesn’t appear to be much of a push for immediate accession, with most discussions leaning towards that decision following the conclusion of the war.
Key topics likely to also see some attention are Sweden’s joining of the alliance, increasing defense spending and production, and what a unified stance towards China may look like.
https://www.npr.org/2023/07/09/1186488556/biden-charles-nato-sweden-turkey
https://apnews.com/article/nato-biden-ukraine-russia-c857c27d8b9bcedcb044d191063313bc
https://www.newsweek.com/watch-nato-summit-2023-ukraine-russia-war-sweden-stoltenberg-1810976