Netanyahu's Plan For Gaza - Russia Takes Avdiivka

1. Netanyahu Presents ‘Day After’ Plan for Gaza

2. Ukrainian Ammo Shortages

3. Russia Takes Avdiivka

4. The Two State Mirage

5. The Impact if China Takes Taiwan

6. How Was Israel Caught Off Guard?

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1. Netanyahu Presents' Day After' Plan for Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has presented a "day after" plan for Gaza, his first official proposal for when the war in the Hamas-run Palestinian territory ends.

According to the document, Israel would maintain security control over all land west of Jordan, including the occupied West Bank and Gaza - territories where the Palestinians want to create an independent state.

In the long-term goals listed, Netanyahu rejects the "unilateral recognition" of a Palestinian state. He said that Israel would only engage in direct negotiations with the Palestinians but did not name the party that would negotiate on their behalf.

In Gaza, Netanyahu claims he aims to achieve demilitarization and deradicalization in the medium term. He does not elaborate on when this phase would begin or how long it would last but says that the rehabilitation of the Gaza Strip - much of which has been destroyed by Israel's offensive - depends on its complete demilitarization.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-netanyahu-presents-first-official-post-gaza-war-plan-2024-02-23/

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/23/netanyahu-gaza-war-palestinian-authority-reconstruction

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-788475

2. Ukrainian Ammo Shortages

In Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, the legendary 93rd Mechanized Brigade operates the U.S.-built M109 self-propelled howitzer, known as the Paladin. As winter covers the region, Russian forces have been on the offensive, pushing towards the Ukrainian stronghold of Chasiv Yar. The Paladin, armed with 155mm shells standard to NATO armies, has replaced Soviet-era artillery. However, Ukraine is running out of shells despite receiving hundreds of howitzers. The shortage is impacting the day-to-day battlefield operations.

The transition to NATO-standard artillery began as Soviet-era ammunition stocks depleted. Although Western countries supplied 155mm howitzers, Ukraine needed help to match Russia's ammunition advantage. Since late last year, the lack of U.S. military aid funding has exacerbated the situation. Russia's latest success in Avdiivka is primarily due to Ukraine's artillery ammunition shortage.

Ukrainian artillery commanders report rationing shells due to scarcity. The expectation is that they must hit targets with minimal shells, in stark contrast to Russia's continuous bombardment. Targets previously deemed worthy of engagement are to be left alone. Moreover, the current rate of fire is unsustainable, as even backup reserves are depleting. Russia reportedly fires ten shells for every one fired by Ukraine, demonstrating this ammunition gap.

European countries that have pledged support have fallen short on their delivery of shells. As of January, the EU has only delivered half the number of shells it promised to deliver annually last spring. Ukraine requires around 200,000 155mm shells per month, and with U.S. aid blocked, some European countries are increasing their domestic defense production; however, this process has bureaucratic hurdles have slowed this process.

This shortage most significantly affects the frontline, where artillerymen are expressing concerns over their ability to provide proper cover for infantry. While FPV drones offer precision, they can't replace the demoralizing effect of artillery. As Europe takes time to procure more shells and U.S. funding remains blocked, Ukrainian artillerymen fear their situation will deteriorate in the face of further delays. The situation highlights the urgency of addressing the ammunition shortage to ensure Ukraine's defense capabilities.

https://kyivindependent.com/on-the-front-line-of-ukraines-shell-hunger-as-effects-of-congress-blockade-bite/

3. Russia Takes Avdiivka

Russian forces achieved a significant breakthrough this week by capturing the small Eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after a brutal battle that lasted for months. The fall of Avdiivka, while a setback for Ukraine, came at a heavy cost for Russia, with Ukrainian military estimates suggesting around 47,000 Russian casualties, including an estimated 17,000 deaths. These numbers, though possibly exaggerated, underscore the severity of the losses.