Manipur: The Massive Political Failure Underpinning India’s General Elections

How sectarianism led to the collapse of the security and governance in a state of the world’s largest democracy and how Prime Minister Modi’s party played a role.

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India is currently holding its largest-ever general elections, with nearly 1 billion eligible voters going to the polls over a six-week period. Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi, whose coalition government is projected to win a third consecutive term, has made over 160 campaign stops across the country. However, the northeastern state of Manipur is a notable exception, given that it is currently governed by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). 

This exception comes as Manipur marks one year of steadily escalating violence that has left the security apparatus effectively handicapped by communal politics and polarization. The breakdown of law and order in Manipur is a manifestation of how divisions flare up when political interests intersect with criminality. Rather than an exception to the rule, Manipur demonstrates a significant problem for an India that is becoming increasingly majoritarian and populist. This problem, if left unaddressed, could have severe consequences for the world’s most populous country moving forward.  

Pictures circulating online highlight Prime Minister Modi’s lack of visits to violence-stricken Manipur. Image Source

The state of Manipur in northeastern India. Image Source

The Breakdown of Law and Order

An ethnic conflict between Manipur’s predominantly Hindu Meitei majority and predominantly Christian Kuki-Zo minority has claimed the lives of at least 220 people since last May, including multiple incidents of beheadings. The conflict, which started on May 3, 2023, saw at least 74 days of violence in its first 90 days, including arson, explosions, gunfights, and more. Reports indicate that both sides are responsible for several cases of sexual violence. The conflict has injured thousands and displaced some 50,000–60,000 people who must now live in makeshift camps with persistent shortages of essentials such as food and water. 

The conflict includes gangs and militias armed with various assault rifles, pistols, mortars, grenade launchers, and more. This rise in armed groups comes after reports of widespread looting at police armories, where mobs reportedly seized more than 5,600 weapons and 650,000 rounds of ammunition in the first few weeks of the conflict. These large caches of advanced weapons come amid the increased militarization of India’s national police units. 

Authorities have only recovered around 1,700 weapons to date, and reports indicate that some ethnic Meitei police personnel have been complicit in the violence to varying degrees. Critics accuse BJP Chief Minister Biren Singh of disrupting security forces deployed by the central government to curb the violence. Local police personnel are also under investigation for handing over two Kuki-Zo women to an ethnic Meitei mob, who then stripped them naked before multiple people sexually assaulted them. A video of the incident went viral last year. 

The violence in Manipur continues to rage on. Communities have established their village defense forces to prevent ethnic militias from entering their space, and these regularly clash with ‘rival’ villages. During the ongoing general elections, authorities have thus far ordered re-polling at 11 places due to gunfire, the destruction of voting machines, and even the takeover of whole polling stations by local mobs. Estimates claim that over 100,000 people have joined armed ethnic militias since last May, and there are no-go zones for Kukis and Meiteis. Even security forces must pass through checkpoints in some areas. 

Critics accuse Manipur’s BJP-led government of disregarding or even facilitating the activities of Meitei extremists. One of these extremist groups, the Arambai Tenggol, is notorious for engaging in violence and extortion, targeting ethnic Kukis, Meiteis of all religions, and Nagas, another prominent tribe in Manipur. Although Arambai Tenggol appears to have enjoyed political patronage in the past, including from local Chief Minister Biren Singh, evidence suggests this political association is breaking down. Last February, the Manipur state police warned the public of the apparent threat posed by Arambai Tenggol. The statement also claimed the state police may request assistance from central government forces to counter the Arambai Tenggol threat following the kidnapping of a high-ranking Meitei police officer. The Arambai Tenggol have also engaged in gunfights with the Assam Rifles, a paramilitary force responsible for border security in northeast India. 

Although reports indicate fewer instances of violence in recent months, tensions remain high, and the insurgency appears to be more entrenched. On April 30, a group of female Meitei protesters forced the release of 11 Meitei militants arrested by the Indian Army. 

Kuki militants in the rural hill districts of Manipur. Image Source

The Arambai Tenggol’s leader (sitting), flanked by militants. Image Source

Factors Leading to Conflict 

Although the media often depicts the conflict as religious, several underlying factors are at play. Northeast India is home to several tribal groups. In Manipur, the Meitei comprise just over half the state’s population and are primarily based in the Imphal Valley, which includes the state capital of Imphal. This region is more developed than the rest of the state, offering the Meitei more political and economic power over local affairs. The Kuki-Zos, Nagas, and other tribes mostly live in the state’s hill districts, which are considerably less developed and home to multiple territorial disputes. These disputes are primarily the result of the Northeast’s complicated integration into India and have led to violent conflicts in the past. 

The trigger for the latest and most severe bout of violence came last year when a court granted the Meitei ethnic group tribal status, allowing them to purchase land in designated tribal areas that are traditionally home to the Kukis and Nagas. This decision resulted in protests last May, with reports indicating that Kuki mobs attacked Meitei residents, resulting in retaliatory actions and the involvement of security forces. 

Manipur, which borders Myanmar, is a key transit point for narcotics smugglers operating in South and Southeast Asia. Last year, the state’s Chief Minister Biren Singh launched a war on drugs that some claim has disproportionately targeted ethnic Kukis. Although the government has reportedly destroyed thousands of acres of opium poppy fields in the hill districts since 2017 and pushed the narrative that Kukis are drug pushers and peddlers, evidence suggests there are links between the Chief Minister, his government, and local drug lords. With Manipur’s drug trade expanding into a multimillion-dollar business that also includes the production of synthetic substances, evidence suggests that involvement cuts across ethnic lines and involves all levels of society. 

The ongoing civil war in neighboring Myanmar is also a factor, with refugees with cultural links to the Kuki-zo steadily flowing into Manipur. Authorities frequently accuse these refugees, sometimes defined as illegal immigrants, of engaging in the drug trade. Some Meitei residents also fear this influx of people could diminish their majority status. Although the government has sought to deport many of these refugees, members of the Kuki community oppose these efforts, furthering inter-ethnic tensions in the state.  

The destruction of homes and property in Sugnu, Manipur. Image Source

Conclusion

Although Manipur is no stranger to violence, the scale and degree of the violence over the past year is unprecedented. The BJP-led state government’s reliance on majoritarian sentiments as part of the party’s right-wing nationalist ideology has exacerbated traditional fissures between the largely Hindu Meiteis and the Christian Kukis. The majoritarian leanings of the BJP have trickled down to the local level, where these tensions are more acute, given India’s lengthy history of communal, religious, and caste tensions. In this way, the latest flareup of violence in Manipur represents a significant political failure for Narendra Modi’s government in New Delhi as it embarks on a nearly unprecedented third term. 

What has occurred in Manipur could be replicated elsewhere in India, where communal tensions run high, particularly as security forces struggle to contain the situation at present. Other parts of northeast India are particularly prone to such challenges, especially amid the ongoing civil war in neighboring Myanmar. Should a cross-border insurgency ensue, any attempts at a border closure could stoke further tensions with tribes in the region who have long advocated for an open-border policy. The situation in Manipur today represents a warning that order can break down quickly in democratic societies that come to rely on majoritarianism over the rule of law.