Kashmir: An Intense Flashpoint between two Nuclear States

Tensions between in India and Pakistan continue to mount over Kashmir with both countries' demand for water fuelling an already tense situation.

Indian howitzers targeting Pakistani bunkers in the 1999 Kargil War. Source

On December 21, the Indian army deployed two vehicles in search of insurgents in Kashmir’s Poonch-Rajouri area, which borders Pakistan. While travelling to their destination, insurgents ambushed the Indian vehicles in the Pir Panjal Valley, killing four soldiers and injuring three others. The next day, Indian forces rounded up and tortured at least 25 individuals from multiple villages in Poonch and Rajouri districts, killing three, including informants for the Indian army. A video of the incident went viral, and the victims’ families received compensation from the Indian state government.

Kashmir is a much-ignored potential flashpoint between two nuclear-armed states – India and Pakistan – in one of the world’s most populous and geo-strategically important regions. Although home to some of the world’s most stunning natural beauty high in the Himalayan mountains, Kashmir is home to a deeply entrenched geopolitical standoff between India and Pakistan and has experienced brutal wars, violence, and repression dating back decades. With no easy solutions, Kashmir remains one of the world’s most crucial potential conflict zones to watch.

The Line of Control functionally serves as the border between India and Pakistan, who have disputing claims over Jammu & Kashmir. Source

Another painful and enduring legacy of partition

On February 14, 2019, a convoy of over 70 vehicles carrying over 2,500 Central Reserve Police Force personnel travelled along the Srinagar-Jammu highway – a 247-kilometer roadway that connects the region with the rest of India. Before this, Indian authorities received at least 11 intelligence briefings of an impending terrorist attack in the area; they ignored all of these. As the convoy was traversing the highway, a Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) terrorist in a vehicle with at least 100 kilograms of explosives (some estimates claim 300 kilograms) rammed into the convoy in Pulwama near the summer capital Srinagar. The blast killed at least 40 CRPF personnel, and dozens more were injured. It was one of the deadliest attacks on Indian security forces in Kashmir’s history. 

The brutal partition that killed millions and birthed the modern states of India and Pakistan continues to define the two countries in many ways. Kashmir’s experience is one of the most enduring legacies of this trauma. British India was home to many nominally independent princely states, and Kashmir was one of these. Independence in 1947 forced the state’s Hindu ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, to decide between joining either India or Pakistan as his country was on the new border between the two. With Pakistan established as a homeland for South Asian Muslims, the Maharaja was under significant pressure to cede his predominantly Muslim state to Pakistan. Instead, he supported Hindu and Sikh paramilitary forces that killed thousands of Kashmiri Muslims, prompting tribal incursions by rebels carrying Pakistani flags. The Maharaja eventually ceded his state to India. Later that year, the arrival of troops from both countries sparked the 1947–1948 Indo-Pakistani war – also known as the First Kashmir War – which resulted in a UN-brokered ceasefire where India received control over two-thirds of the state and Pakistan over one-third. Kashmir saw two more wars in the years since, one in 1965 and the latest in 1999. 

The 1999 war – known as the Kargil War – was one of the tensest moments in contemporary history. Just one year prior, Pakistan tested its first nuclear weapon, the war a standoff between two nuclear-armed states. It was only when the U.S. exerted significant pressure on Pakistan to withdraw its forces back to the original Line of Control (LoC) that the situation returned to the status quo. However, tensions remain high, with India and Pakistan recently exchanging barbs over Kashmir at the 55th Session of the U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva. 

Although Jammu-Kashmir has seen sporadic attacks since the deadly 2019 Pulwama attack, the strength of homegrown Kashmiri insurgent groups has declined significantly. Today, the region’s most prominent homegrown groups include the People’s Anti-Fascist Forces (PAFF) and The Resistance Front (TRF). Although other groups operating in Jammu-Kashmir claim to be homegrown, they have demonstrable links to Pakistani militant groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), as well as Pakistan’s domestic and international security apparatus, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The most notorious of these Kashmir-based Pakistan-linked groups is Lashkar-e-Taiba, which carried out the 2008 Mumbai attacks that killed 174 people, including 20 security personnel and 26 foreign nationals.

Kashmir has seen a rise in small-scale attacks on Indian security forces in recent months, with four Indian soldiers killed and three others wounded in an ambush last December. “Pakistan-based militants typically pivot operations to the south of the Pir Panjal range in response to changes in military deployment patterns,” said South Asia security expert Tarun Nair. “This gives (the militants) the advantage of the high ground and helps to level the playing field between them and Indian security forces, especially when the security forces spread themselves too thin”. Regarding the recent spate of attacks, Nair said, “PAFF cells in Rajouri and Poonch appear to be distinct from militants operating elsewhere. They have been connected to at least eight attacks against security forces. In each case, they have displayed superior small unit tactics, effectively leveraging the terrain to conduct surveillance under concealment, strike vulnerable security elements, and evade search operations after attacking. They have also optimally used local civilian assets to lure the security forces into ambush spots in hilly and forested terrain. While militants from across the LoC tend to be more well-trained than members of local groups like Hizbul Mujahideen, the tactical signature of these attacks is inconsistent, even by those standards. I would not be surprised if these cells are found to comprise battle-hardened serving or former special operations personnel from the Pakistan army. That said, we need more evidence to conclude if this tactical shift extends to PAFF and TRF cells in the Kashmir Valley.” 

Kashmir’s Pir Panjal mountain range is a major hotbed of militant activity. Source

‘Heaven on Earth’: How Resources fuel the Conflict

Indian tourism companies frequently market Kashmir as 'Heaven on Earth' due to its picturesque scenery. However, some Kashmiris have referred to the region as the world's largest open-air prison due to New Delhi's systematic repression of the region, including numerous human rights abuses and press freedom violations. Much of the desire to exert control over Kashmir stems from its vast natural resources, such as timber, lithium, sapphire, graphite, and, most importantly, water. 

Nestled high in the Himalayas, Kashmir is a significant source of water for vast portions of India and Pakistan – two countries deeply embroiled in disputes over this most precious of resources in a region increasingly prone to drought. Although India harnesses the power of Kashmir's vast rivers to make it a hydroelectric hub that supplies electricity to much of northern India, the state sees little benefit at home – during my latest trip to the state capital of Srinagar, the local newspaper reported 18-hour power cuts that winter in a city that frequently experiences freezing temperatures. 

Kashmir is home to a portion of the Indus River system, which flows from the vast Himalayan glaciers of nearby Tibet, and upon which more than 300 million people rely to sustain their lives. Although a 1960 treaty technically governs India and Pakistan's water rights to the Indus, access to these waters remains hotly contested. On February 25, India stopped the flow of water from the Ravi River – a part of the Indus system – to Pakistan, instead diverting it toward Indian-occupied Kashmir. Last year, diplomatic tensions between India and Pakistan worsened over the construction of dams on either side of their shared de-factor border in Kashmir, which both perceive as a violation of the 1960 treaty. This latest incident comes amid growing calls for India to scrap the treaty altogether. Moreover, New Delhi's 2019 legislative changes on the status of Jammu and Kashmir resulted in an influx of industrial investments in the state. These factors will likely provoke further frustration from locals and provide more fodder for militant groups operating there.  

On the surface, Pakistan's interest in Kashmir stems from the state's Muslim-majority population. Pakistani politicians, parties, and even the national government often rally around the idea of freeing Kashmir from Indian occupation. This contention makes Kashmir a potent political tool for Pakistani leaders to distract from their country's multitude of political challenges. Moreover, Pakistan has a documented history of supporting insurgent and terror groups in Kashmir that target Indian forces and civilians alike. However, it is Pakistan's close military and economic relations with China that pose the greatest threat to Indian interests, with Beijing recently investing U.S. $4 billion in two hydroelectric dam projects in Pakistani-occupied Kashmir as part of the multi-billion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project. China has also agreed to construct an additional dam in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir outside the CPEC project, to which India also objects.  

Pakistan awarded China a multibillion dollar contract to build a dam on the portion of Kashmir it controls. Source

Conclusion

The perennial conflict in Kashmir has no easy solutions – at least none on a diplomatic or political level. What further exacerbates this deadlock is the region's growing demand for Kashmir's resources, especially water. Kashmir is more violent than it was a decade ago, and with Pakistan likely to continue supporting terrorism in Kashmir and Indian forces likely to continue cracking down, tensions between the two countries continue to mount. Moreover, with American ties to both countries now more nuanced and complex than in 1999, it is unclear if Washington can reign in either side should an all-out war between them ensue. Between rising frustrations within the Kashmiri population, as well as rising geopolitical tensions rising tensions – not only between India and Pakistan but also with China – the emergence of a potential conflict in Kashmir appears increasingly likely. These mounting tensions make Kashmir one of today's most important geopolitical hot spots.