Israel Strikes Hamas in Gaza, Prepares For Ground Assault
Israel Strikes Hamas in Gaza, Prepares For Ground Assault
Israel at War with Hamas
Inside Look at the Hamas Operation
Israel’s 9/11
Another Pipeline Attack?
Russia Attacks Near Avdiivka
Ukraine Plans to Arm Themselves
Podcast Recommendations
Israel at War with Hamas
On Saturday, October 7th, Hamas carried out a brutal attack into Israeli territory that left more than 1,200 dead, 3,000 wounded and an unknown number taken as hostages. Over the next few days Israeli forces cleared the villages of the Hamas terrorists and reestablished control over the border with Gaza. The process to retake and secure the areas near Gaza took days with repeated terrorist attacks ongoing including additional incursions across the border. By the time the areas were considered clear, an estimated 1,500 Hamas terrorists lay dead.
Israel also began a siege of Gaza announcing no food, water, or electricity will enter the area until all hostages are returned safely. The hostages are believed to be from as many as 36 different countries with estimates ranging from a few dozen to over one hundred total in Hamas captivity.
Israel conducted a rapid mobilization of roughly 360,000 soldiers who many believe are standing by for the inevitable ground attack into Gaza. Before going in, Israel is conducting large scale air strikes across the area with more than 2,687 targets struck in the first six days of the war.
The Palestinian Health Authority announced that as of October 12th, 1,200 people had been killed and more than 5,000 wounded in the Israeli strikes. Additionally, al Jazeera reports that the lone power plant in Gaza has shut down due to lack of fuel.
As a show of support for Israel and in hopes of preventing further escalation, the US sent a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and are discussing sending a second. In addition to preventing Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or any other group from taking advantage of the situation, the carriers could also serve as a staging point for evacuations of US persons from Israel or elsewhere in the region.
Reports on Iranian involvement, though understandable, are still unclear. While Hamas receives the bulk of their funding, training and military equipment via Iran, it doesn’t appear that direct Iranian links to this attack have been made. US officials seem to be on the fence, recognizing Iran’s indirect role but not possessing (or willing to release) information showing direct involvement.
So far the war, which has the potential to lead to a regional or global conflict, has avoided escalation. Hezbollah to the north of Israel in Lebanon, has conducted a few cross border attacks in the past days but so far have not formally joined the war. Additionally, Israel reported one instance of shell fire from Syria into Israeli territory but I’ve not seen confirmation of which group was believed responsible. Finally, Syria accused Israel of conducting strikes on the Aleppo and Damascus airports on October 12th, to which Israel said they had no comment. The strikes are believed to have been carried out with the goal of stopping Iranian arms shipments to their proxies in Syria that could be used to attack Israel.
Israel has announced that all civilians should leave Gaza, a statement put out just before midnight last night. This would mean the displacement of upwards of 1.1 million people which the UN stated could create a humanitarian disaster. Reports are coming out that Hamas is calling this a ‘psyop’ and that all citizens should remain in place.
Inside Look at the Hamas Operation
The Telegram channel South First Responders received images of documents retrieved off of dead Hamas terrorists indicating the overall plan for their recent operation in Israel. The documents shared maps, intelligence and overall operational outlines that provide an added level of insight as to what played out on October 7th.
The documents say that the attack for a specific kibbutz would be carried out by a commander and two squads of five people. It lays out who is responsible for breaching a gap in the fence and assigns a team dedicated to providing ‘artillery’ (likely mortars rather than howitzers given Hamas capabilities).
The document adds that there are 1,000 civilians in the target area and that Israeli forces could arrive in 3-5 minutes along road 232 in the form of 2-3 jeeps. It goes on to lay out specific tasks for the operation which includes “take prisoner soldiers, residents and take hostages for negotiations.”
https://t.me/southfirstresponders/177
Israel’s 9/11
Bruce Hoffman is a great source here in the US for anything terrorism related and he’s already put out some great work to help us better understand the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas. In one of his recent pieces, linked below, he argues that this terrorist attack is comparable to if 20,000 Americans died on 9/11 and stresses how the reaction could change the Middle East forever.
Hoffman does a great job laying out the effect this attack will have on the Israeli people and it’s easy to understand their desire for revenge. Thinking back to what things were like here in the US shortly after 9/11, the country was ready to go get those responsible. There was overwhelming support to find and eliminate anyone who had anything to do with that horrible event. I’m sure that’s exactly the sentiment right now inside of Israel.
Good read, worth checking out.
Another Pipeline Attack?
Finnish and Finish officials stated that recent damage to an undersea gas and telecommunications pipeline cable appears to have been caused by external activity, suggesting it was the result of a deliberate attack. The officials stopped short of calling it an attack but said that the damage could not have been caused by normal operations. They noted the damage to the pipeline and cable are in two different locations but the timing of the incident was quite close.
Both countries have begun an investigation into the cause of the damage and are not speculating on who or what specifically caused it as of yet.
https://apnews.com/article/finland-estonia-pipeline-24d6623cf2778464fdb4ef1d85c70d91
Russia Attacks Near Avdiivka
On October 10th, Russia launched a ground offensive looking to encircle Avdiivka. The unexpected use of a large armored column is unlike what we’ve seen from Russia in recent months as minefields, ATGMs and loitering munitions have made major assaults extremely costly for both sides.
As of this writing it appears the fighting is ongoing. While Russia has made progress to the north towards Stepove, it looks as though the attack is losing momentum or at least not moving at the same pace at which it started. Of note, Ukrainian sources are saying as many as 30-45 Russian vehicles were destroyed in this assault.
Rybar has probably the most aggressive look at Russian progress which amounts to roughly a 5km advance. The territory taken here is less important than what it could lead to. There is a Ukrainian element in Avdiivka that could risk being cut off if the Russian assault continues and is able to close the pocket behind the city.
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712385378676514861
https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1712634354147479851?s=20
https://x.com/RaduHossu/status/1712603920302739698?s=20
Ukraine Plans to Arm Themselves
As continued military aid to Ukraine meets increased pushback in various nations around the world, Ukraine is looking to resolve that problem in house. A new report in Politico highlighted how the Ukrainian government is working with foreign governments and arms manufacturers to bring that capability inside Ukrainian borders. So far, two European defense contractors have said they’re ready to go. Germany’s Rheinmetal and the UK’s BAE have announced plans to move forward with Ukraine.
Many of Ukraine’s supporters are having to shift focus to their own stockpiles of ammunition and equipment as they continue providing aid. While many nations have increased production, Ukraine recognizes that total dependance on partner aid is not a viable long term solution. Of course the question remains just how effective a defense industry could be in Ukraine as the entire country is in range of Russian missiles.
Podcast Recommendations
Israel: “This is not a conflict. This is a war.”
War on Israel updates: “No good options”
Israel at War: October 11, 2023
The Meaning of the Attack on Israel