Israel Kicks Off Major Operation in West Bank
Israel Launches Largest Attack Into the West Bank Since 2002
Following drone strikes on Monday morning, roughly 2,000 Israeli Soldiers moved into the West Bank city of Jenin in what they’re referring to as a counter-terrorism operation. Israeli Defense Minister Gannant said that the operation is proceeding as planned and that they’ve dealt a major blow to the terror organizations in Jenin.
A spokesperson for Palestinian President Abbas called the operation ‘another war crime against our defenseless people’ with other prominent Palestinian leaders adding that the operation would fail and they would continue to fight for their freedom. The operation, which is continuing and may go on for a few more days has claimed the lives of 8 Palestinians with another 50 wounded.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-66083295
Ukrainian Forces Continue Their Advance
Over the past week Ukraine has continued their offensive in the south and east of the country. There’s not been any major changes in territorial control but there are two areas of note.
At Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces appear to be pressing forward to the north and south of the city at a rate faster than anywhere else on the battlefield. It’s still a slow, griding, deadly fight without a noticeable breakthrough, but the progress in the Bakhmut direction has been rather consistent compared with elsewhere.
This is interesting, really on both sides of the fight. On the Ukrainian side, it’s believed that the forces attacking here are local, as in they’ve been there for a while and it’s not any of the newly formed brigades with western equipment leading the charge. On the Russian side, this was all terrain taken by Wagner that has since been handed over to Russian MoD units. So in most areas of the offensive you have new Ukrainian units attacking Russian forces that have been there for a while. But at Bakhmut, you have the legacy Ukrainian forces attacking a new Russian element.
New video was circulating today, inserted below, of a Ukrainian assault on Russian positions around Bakhmut.
Further south, the Antonovsky Bridge has been an interesting area to keep an eye on. Around the 24th of June, reports along with videos began to emerge of an ongoing fight on the Russian occupied side of the Dnipro river. Russia has now claimed a few times that they’ve beaten back the attackers and destroyed the entire element that crossed the river, but that hasn’t proven true. At least after their first few claims, new videos emerged of ongoing fighting.
The same back and forth continued into July 2nd where both Russia and Ukraine made contradictory claims about the status of the fighting there. Even with a secure bridgehead, which is hard to confirm at this point, there is still a lot to be done before it could be effectively exploited by Ukrainian forces. On the other hand, the inability of Russia to dislodge this small element has been noteworthy.
Whether by missile strikes, artillery saturation of the area or even direct assault by local infantry and armor units, there are plenty of ways the Ukrainian forces could be overwhelmed and driven back. Russia cannot afford for a bridgehead to be opened here, yet every passing day increases that likelihood. It’s possible resources are being utilized elsewhere and they can’t be committed but hard to say for sure. Either way, worth keeping an eye on the bridge so long as Ukraine maintains a force across the river.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1675437064534257667
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1675424307680272385
Effects of Russian Mutiny Still Playing Out
Rumors of General Surovikin’s imprisonment continue as the previous leader of all Russian forces in Ukraine still has not been seen or heard from since the Wagner-led mutiny. One unnamed US official told NPR that he had been detained but there are other theories that he’s on a sort of house arrest, or confinement not quite as severe as actually being behind bars. Either way, his apparent close ties to Prigozhin and subsequent silence suggests he is, at the very least, the subject of an ongoing Russian investigation.
Prigozhin, on the other hand, has been putting out more audio statements but they’re rather tame compared to what he’s said in the past. His most recent essentially just said the march for justice as worth it, they accomplished a lot, and thank you for your support.
Meanwhile, more information is emerging about how tied in Prigozhin was to the overall Russian war effort in Ukraine. While his leadership of Wagner has taken center stage over the last months and years, he runs, or is involved with, multiple other organizations with significant impact in their own way.
In addition to the Internet Research Agency, who propagates disinformation campaigns around the world, Prigozhin’s media group has additional branches like Nevskie Novosti and Ekonomika Segodnya. Reports are coming out that all are stumbling a bit now following the failed mutiny.
Additionally, Prigozhin runs the Concord Group which has been the Russian military’s biggest food provider in the war with a current $9.6 billion contract. Of course with the chaos and uncertainty surrounding Prigozhin, it’s hard to imagine that he will retain ownership of any of these entities which will likely deal him a significant financial blow.
The food supplier issue into occupied Ukraine is an interesting piece I’m going to try to follow up on. There have long been reports from the Russian side of adequate food not getting to front line positions. So if the largest supplier is quickly changed, that may be something felt at the front.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1675845238265372673?s=20
https://www.npr.org/2023/06/29/1185088717/russia-general-detained-ukraine-commander
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1675852966173999105
https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1675596380490944520
State Department Report on Afghan Withdrawal
The US State Department released an unclassified version (24 of 85 pages) of an after-action review this past Friday focused around the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan. The report stated that there was insufficient senior-level consideration of worst-case scenarios and that while DOD was beginning to plan an evacuation operation, it wasn’t clear who was taking lead at the State Department.
The unclassified report is linked below if interested in reading.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/30/us-report-slams-poor-planning-for-afghanistan-withdrawal
https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/State-AAR-AFG.pdf
Thanks for the great update Preston. I’m continually impressed by the Ukrainians in this war. Noticeably the way they suppressed the trench line with sheer firepower. Also the way they handle prisoners is incredible, even if these EPWs get put back into circulation; every prisoner taken is a Ukrainian eventually returned. The 3rd SAB have been doing really well and performing admirably. On Prigozhin, is it only audio? If so perhaps it’s possible that the Russian government could be making false audio recordings and he is already dead. This technology is being developed and is quite alarming, especially when paired with AI. A little off topic but I just watched your video with Ahmed Hassan of Grey Dynamics, it was really cool! Have you ever heard of an author named Roland Bartetzko? He’s a veteran of the Bundeswehr, the Croatian Defence Council and the Kosovo Liberation Army. He has fought both as a conventional soldier and as a guerilla. His book “The smell of war” and his posts on the website Quora are definitely worth a read.