Iranian Counterattack: Tensions Rise as the World Pushes for De-escalation

Iran's recent attack on Israel in response to the April 1 attack in Damascus has the world waiting on what's next. Given the regional and global threats, the stakes have never been higher.

Image source

Iran launched over 300 missiles and drones aimed at Israel on Saturday, April 13, and into the early hours of Sunday. Reports indicate that Israel and its partners intercepted 99% of the Iranian munitions, with only a few causing "light structural damage." This incident was the first direct attack on Israel by a state since 1991, when Saddam Hussein's Iraq launched 42 Scud missiles on Israeli territory.

The Iranian attack came in response to the April 1 attack on a building adjacent to the Iranian embassy in Damascus that killed seven people, including two Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. Although Israel has not officially taken responsibility for the attack, their involvement is broadly confirmed, and Washington has expressed its frustration with Israel over its lack of prior notice. Washington is reportedly working to de-escalate the situation to avoid a broader regional war.

With the prospect of a broad Middle East war looming large on the world stage, how Israel responds to this latest attack and any potential escalation to follow could have profound geopolitical ramifications in the coming months. Given this situation, I've delayed my previously scheduled article to do something different. Because we've covered much of the threat associated with a Middle Eastern war scenario, I decided to summarize these articles in this shortened format while updating some aspects to represent more recent events. This article pulls together our situation analysis to clarify what's at stake moving forward.

Threats throughout the region

Tehran has spent decades arming proxies to project power throughout the Middle East. Should the situation continue to escalate, these groups pose an immediate threat to Israel and American interests in the region. Should Iran become directly involved, the situation could become much more perilous. 

Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon will likely play a pivotal role in a war with Israel. As I mentioned in my February 12 article, Hezbollah has access to some 200,000 rockets and missiles – including precision-guided munitions, as well as missile production capabilities, and a fighting force of over 100,000 individuals. Some estimate that Hezbollah has more firepower than 95 percent of the world's militaries, and its vast gold and cash holdings, as well as its control over major ports and land routes into neighboring Syria, make it relatively impervious to international sanctions. Here, the threat of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah remains high. Since the start of the war, the two sides have regularly exchanged attacks, resulting in the displacement of thousands of Israelis and the killing of several people in Lebanon, including civilians as well as senior Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria also pose a significant threat, particularly to U.S. interests. As I discussed in my February 19 article, Iranian-backed militias play a potent role in both countries, with an estimated combined fighting force of 238,000 individuals in Iraq and 60,000 individuals in Syria. As we have seen in the Tower 22 attack, these militias pose a severe threat to U.S. interests in the Middle East. Moreover, signs that Tehran is not in complete control of these groups make the situation even more volatile.

In the Red Sea, Iranian-backed Houthis have disrupted commercial shipping while engaging with U.S. forces in the area since last November. However, these attacks have slowed in recent weeks, causing U.S. Air Forces Central Commander, Lt. General Alexus Grynkewich, to openly speculate that the group may be running low on Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. This lull comes after the successful downing of numerous Houthi drones and the interception of Yemen-bound Iranian weapons by U.S. forces. However, just south of Yemen, Somali pirates are increasingly active, recently hijacking the container ship MV Ruen using an Iranian fishing vessel and regularly engaging with Indian naval forces there.

In my January 29 article, I noted that Iran and the Houthis maintain ties with the Somali terror group al-Shabaab, which is linked to piracy in the region. I also speculated that Somali pirates' capture of Iranian fishing vessels may have been a means by which Tehran transferred weapons to al-Shabaab. In this way, the threats posed by Iranian-backed groups on the Red Sea remain far from neutralized.

The Persian Gulf is the final and most serious theater of conflict in a potential war with Iran. Last October, one influential Iranian lawmaker threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz if the U.S. directly aids Israel in the war, which would effectively close the gulf to container traffic. Iran has spent decades developing a vast arsenal to achieve this in a crisis, which I outlined in my February 6 article. Moreover, Iranian Revolutionary Guards seized a cargo ship transiting the strait this past Saturday, which they claimed is linked to Israel, demonstrating the seriousness of previous threats. As Uday Bakshi noted in his February 28 article, Iran now operates an extensive maritime militia that reportedly includes 55,000 personnel on 33,000 vessels armed with rockets across the Persian Gulf. These factors seriously threaten one of the world's most critical strategic waterways. 

Iran and its proxies cast a long shadow over the Middle East. Image source

Global Impact

Iran's latest attack on Israel represented a . Hezbollah represents Tehran's most potent threat to Israel as it has the estimated capacity to launch some 4,000 medium- and long-range missiles per day, enough to overwhelm  Israel's air defenses over an extended period. This capacity gives Hezbollah the means to destroy much of Israel's critical infrastructure and likely inflict massive civilian casualties. Additionally, Iran's latest attack demonstrates its ability to strike Israel with long-range missiles, of which the U.S. estimates it possesses over 3,000. These threats are severe enough that they would likely keep Israel from meaningfully engaging in a broader Middle Eastern war, leaving that primarily to U.S. forces.

American forces and civilian personnel stationed in the Middle East could face any number of threats in the event of a war with Iran. As the Tower 22 attack demonstrated, U.S. troops stationed practically anywhere in the region face threats from the various Iran-backed militias there. These attacks could be small in scope, such as using Shahed-22 drones to attack military outposts, or potentially large enough to do severe damage, such as sinking an aircraft carrier. Vast American investments throughout the region, including in the energy industry, would also be under threat, putting civilian lives at risk. These threats fit into the broader Iranian strategy of anti-access area denial (A2AD), which we've explored extensively in previous articles, the essence of which is to deny an enemy movement by inflicting massive casualties over a vast geographic area. Additionally, Iran-funded terror groups also pose a threat to American and Israeli interests far outside the Middle Eastern theater.

If the war extends to the Persian Gulf – right on Iran's doorstep – the effects will be felt globally and much more acutely than the current crisis in the Red Sea. Roughly one-third of total global seaborne traded crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and major global economies in Europe and East Asia are highly dependent on Gulf exports to meet their energy needs. In this way, closing Gulf container traffic would almost certainly create a global energy crisis that the world's major economies would find difficult to ignore. Following Iran's attack on Israel, China expressed that it is "deeply concerned" over escalation in the region, and French President Emmanuel Macron urged Israel to avoid escalation on Monday.

Russia is closer to Iran than ever before, with Moscow purchasing vast quantities of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles for its war effort in Ukraine. Plans are also reportedly underway for Russia to provide Iran with fighter jets, attack helicopters, and pilot-training aircraft. Last November, the White House declassified a report suggesting Russia's Wagner Group was preparing to offer air defense capabilities to "either Hezbollah or Iran" – the Kremlin dismissed the report. Although a recent article in The National Interest makes a convincing case that Moscow does not want a war between Iran and Israel, the possibility of Russian involvement looms large in the event of such a scenario. Similarly, with China's primary source of energy imports under threat from the prospect of a regional war, it is difficult to imagine Beijing sitting idly by in a wartime scenario. Given these factors, Washington recently appealed to Beijing to use its influence in Tehran to de-escalate the situation.

Iran has the capacity to shut down the 30 mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important energy corridor. Image source

Conclusion

 A full-scale war between Israel, the U.S., and Iran could have disastrous global consequences. If and how Israel responds in the coming weeks, and any escalation that ensues, could impact the lives of millions worldwide. With the U.S., Europe, China, and Russia all seeking to de-escalate the current conflict, it will likely come down to whether these calls will be heard in the halls of power in Tehran and Jerusalem in the coming weeks. If not, and escalation does ensue, it is clear that there are few real gains to be had in the resulting conflict.