Imran Khan: How the Pakistani Military Showed its Hand

By backing populist candidate Imran Khan, then removing him from power, Pakistan's military has opened itself up to unprecedented public backlash at a pivotal time the country's history

Imran Khan during a rally in Islamabad after he was ousted from power. Image Source

On February 8, Pakistan held what has been called the "most rigged" general elections in its history. While the military backed former Prime Minister Imran Khan's opponents, Khan remained imprisoned and his party suppressed. Despite this repression, Khan's supporters rallied, leading the vote in many places. Regardless, the military-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) prevailed in the official results, forming a government mainly comprised of the country's entrenched political elite.

Although the Pakistani military facilitated Imran Khan's rise, he frequently clashed with the top brass while in office, sealing his fate. However, his populist legacy endures, and his controversial ousting continues to produce ramifications for Pakistan's ruling military elite, who must now operate with the diminished façade of civilian rule.

Pakistani military Special Services Group in 2018. Image Source

The Rise and Fall of Imran Khan

Imran Khan rose to international fame as one of the world's best cricket players. He dabbled in politics until the 2010s when he became a serious player in Pakistani politics as head of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. In the run-up to the 2018 general elections, Khan engaged in a bitter feud with then-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who had been a prime minister on three separate occasions and ousted by the military each time. This time, the Pakistani military reportedly backed Khan and the PTI against Sharif, who Pakistani courts later found guilty of several corruption charges. Khan became Pakistan's 22nd Prime Minister on August 18, 2022, with Sharif later exiled to the UK.

Despite initially warm relations between the military and Khan, the prime minister’s actions soon brought him to loggerheads with the country's de-facto ruling elite. Although Khan remained popular throughout his tenure, Pakistan's unfolding economic crisis – unprecedented in scope and stemming from decades of corrupt mismanagement – resulted in widespread anti-government sentiment. Opposition parties comprised of Pakistan's traditional ruling elite staged protests, eventually ousting Khan in an April 2022 vote of no confidence, a move allegedly supported by the US. In November of that year, Khan appeared at a march protesting the new government, where an assailant shot him in the leg; he later accused the military and interim government of orchestrating the alleged assassination attempt. On May 9, 2023, authorities arrested Khan on multiple charges, including corruption, terrorism, rioting, blasphemy, contempt of court, and others. Mass protests erupted in response.

Although Pakistan's constitution mandated elections be held in 2023, the interim government and military delayed these until February 2024. With Khan imprisoned and his PTI heavily suppressed, the political elites handily won, forming a coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif, brother of Nawaz Sharif, the latter of whom is now back in Pakistan. Other elite names in the coalition include Zardari and Bhutto – families that have nominally ruled Pakistan and been involved in some of its most egregious corruption cases for generations.

"That's military's cardinal sin: they brought Imran in power, it was a mistake, after that it removed him from power through a vote on no-confidence, it was a bigger mistake."

– Abdul Basit, Senior Associate Fellow, International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore

Imran Khan political timeline

The Goliath Military and Its Gambles

Imran Khan's increased involvement in military affairs eventually drew the ire of Pakistan's top brass. In October 2021, Khan involved himself in a feud between the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Qamar Javed Bajwa and Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt. General Faiz Hameed. According to reports, Khan maintained a close relationship with Faiz and attempted to extend his tenure as head of the ISI in an apparent bid to gain his support for future elections. However, Bajwa prevailed, and Faiz now faces several court cases. Khan also reportedly clashed with Bajwa and the military on foreign policy matters, notably on his statements on the war in Ukraine, attempts to restore trade with India, and talks with the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban (TTP) that ultimately failed. These failed talks with the Taliban come amidst a notable shift in Pakistani policy toward the group in recent years, with Khan's perceived appeasement of these groups earning him the label "Taliban Khan."

Pakistan's military has a lengthy history of election interference, often resorting to violence. In 1979, the military hanged the country's first elected prime minister, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. In 2007, the ISI was infamously implicated in the assassination of his daughter and former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto. However, the 2022 ousting of Imran Khan provoked a much more intense reaction from the Pakistani public, with his May 9, 2023 arrest resulting in unprecedented riots that specifically targeted military institutions and killed at least eight people. During these riots, mobs damaged police stations, broke into the corps commander's residence in Lahore (once home to Pakistani founding father Muhammad Ali Jinnah), and vandalized the General Headquarters of the Army in Rawalpindi. Authorities arrested nearly 2,000 people in response, and reports indicate that Khan's arrest had even polarized establishment elites, resulting in intense debate among them.

The historic Jinnah House in Lahore after being set ablaze by Khan supporters in May 2023. Image Source.

Conclusion

Although Pakistan's military has remained in de facto control for much of the country's history, it has done much to maintain the veneer of civilian rule through democratic institutions and a nominally independent judiciary. However, by harnessing the populist wave of support for Imran Khan, only to overthrow him before the end of his first term, the military has raised questions about the legitimacy of these institutions, drawing significant public ire for the first time. Although the military is now attempting a return to nominal civilian rule under Pakistan's traditional and entrenched political elite, public trust in the military has eroded in a way that cannot likely be undone. For Pakistan, a nuclear-armed country already deep into a protracted economic crisis, this is a perilous situation. Like other military regimes, such as that of Myanmar, the situation could spiral out of control.