Fertile Ground: ISKP Recruitment in Central Asia

The world is taking notice of the threat posed by the ISKP, a group that recruits heavily from Central Asia to carry out its brutal attacks.

The ISKP relies heavily on Central Asian recruits to carry out its overseas attacks. Image source

Last August, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) confirmed it was searching for more than a dozen Uzbek nationals who sought asylum in the United States. The threat posed by the individuals was so severe that it required an emergency intelligence report to senior Biden administration officials that suggested the FBI was unaware of their exact whereabouts. The individuals in question were reportedly brought into the country by a smuggling network with links to the Islamic State (IS). There are no reports of any arrests regarding this matter to date.

In Moscow, each of the four suspects accused of carrying out the horrific March 22 attack on behalf of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) were Tajik nationals. On March 29, authorities in Tajikistan detained nine more suspects in relation to the Moscow attack. On January 11, Iranian intelligence confirmed at least one of the two suspects in the January 3 ISKP suicide attacks in Kerman was a Tajik national who entered the country via Afghanistan. These incidents and others highlight the ISKP’s ongoing efforts to recruit Central Asians – mainly nationals of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – into its ranks. This recruitment is primarily due to multiple factors in the region, including socio-economic challenges, repressive policies at home and abroad, and a lawless Afghanistan that has turned this part of the world into an attractive territory for extremist recruiters.

Map of Central Asia. Image source

Repression and radicalization at home

The fall of the Soviet Union produced unique challenges in the former Central Asian republics, especially in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. For Uzbekistan – the most populous of these – this meant the collapse and re-orientation of its industrial economy, an emerging water crisis, and the rise of extremism in the country. Although Uzbekistan’s economy has improved dramatically over the past three decades, its massive population growth has resulted in a deficit in education and employment opportunities, which ultimately drives poverty. For Tajikistan – the poorest country in the region – this brought about a five-year civil war between forces that previously served as the Soviet-era government and a coalition of Islamist factions that resulted in a stalemate between the two sides. Since then, with few natural resources and trade opportunities, Tajikistan continues to struggle economically, with a national poverty rate of 26 percent and an extreme poverty rate of 11 percent as of 2019.

Both countries engage in significant repressive measures as part of efforts to combat the threat posed by extremist groups operating within their borders. The United States Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) describes Tajikistan’s record on religious freedom as “already dismal” and that it “continues to deteriorate,” citing “restrictions on wedding and funerary banquets, as well bans on beards and hijabs.” The commission similarly notes worsening conditions in Uzbekistan, citing restrictions on practices not in line with state-sanctioned interpretations of Islam, noting that some 2,000 people remain imprisoned for peaceful religious practices. 

Last year, officials in the Uzbek capital of Tashkent closed down nearly a dozen halal restaurants, only allowing them to reopen if they agreed to sell liquor. In 2016, police in Tajikistan shaved the beards of 13,000 men across the country. With Islam – and not necessarily the state-sanctioned kind – becoming increasingly popular among youth in both countries, these repressive measures could result in extremist backlash. Moreover, extremist groups routinely spread their propaganda to youth in these countries online, often in a way that incites violence and thus creates a legitimate threat. However, critics argue that these harsh measures are merely the tool of corrupt regimes to persecute rivals, achieve little regarding deradicalization, and may contribute to it. Regardless of the complex circumstances, one thing is clear: ISKP recruiters routinely and successfully attract recruits from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, regardless of their governments’ best efforts.

Police in Tajikistan forcibly shave men’s beards in an effort to combat radicalization. Some say such harsh measures contribute to extremism there. Image source

Russia’s role in radicalization

Many Uzbeks and Tajiks seek work abroad in response to a lack of opportunity at home. Russia is by far the most significant destination for migrant workers from these countries, being home to between two and four million Uzbek migrants and around one million Tajiks. Here, law enforcement and street gangs regularly target these migrant communities, with Russian authorities carrying out large anti-migrant campaigns each year, including raids on Central Asian businesses, mosques, and places of gathering. Last year’s campaign reportedly resulted in some 15,000 deportations.

Reports indicate that many Central Asian migrants have become radicalized in Russia. One Uzbekistan-based non-governmental organization (NGO) recorded several instances where Uzbek migrants in Russia were offered “help” with their residency applications by extremist groups, who promised to assist them in exchange for their attendance at sermons by radical imams. “Typically, radicalization occurs in Russia. Vulnerable groups include alienated youth, who have no social or community support, those with low levels of religious education and little prospect for advancement, and youngsters who get involved in crime or hang out with criminals,” said Piotr Kazmierkiewitz of the UN International Organization for Migration (IOM). Reports that ISKP-affiliated groups routinely fundraise through accounts linked to the Russian-Cypriot payment platform QIWI and Sberbank – the largest bank in the country - further highlight that Russia is home to extensive ISKP recruitment and activity.

Russian authorities check the papers of Tajik migrant workers. Some say harsh repression there also contributes to radicalization. Image source

Afghanistan

If Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are places of severe religious repression, neighboring Afghanistan is just the opposite. Here, the Taliban regime – which has its own brand of radical Islam – struggles to maintain control over a country where extremist groups proliferate like never before.

Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic country and is home to large indigenous Uzbek and Tajik populations (Tajiks are the country’s second-largest ethnic group). By incorporating Afghan Uzbek and Tajik fighters into their ranks, the ISKP is able to appeal to their countrymen on the other side of their respective borders, producing online propaganda in Uzbek, Tajik, and other languages. From their base in Afghanistan, the ISKP also poses a direct threat to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, launching rocket attacks at both countries in 2022. Although these attacks failed to strike any significant targets, they demonstrate a capability on the part of the ISKP that could appeal to potential recruits in both countries.

In 2016, the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) recruited some 5,000 Central Asians to fight in its ranks, with 1,500 of these coming from Uzbekistan and 1,094 coming from Tajikistan. The emergence of the ISKP in Afghanistan proved instrumental in attracting disaffected fighters from Uzbekistan’s Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) as well as the Islamic Resistance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). The IRPT remains heavily persecuted in Tajikistan, making its members easy prey for ISKP recruiters offering them resistance by other means. Meanwhile, the IMU pledged allegiance to the ISKP in 2015, bringing its robust Uzbek-language propaganda apparatus to help target further potential recruits.

Regardless of how draconian the crackdowns in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan become, the ISKP operates with near total impunity in neighboring Afghanistan, regularly targeting potential recruits in both countries, and drawing them across the border. Neither country has found a way to address this effectively. While Uzbekistan seeks to engage the Taliban on some level politically and economically, Tajikistan staunchly opposes them due to their harboring of Tajik Taliban operatives that regularly threaten their borders. In neither instance is the threat posed by the ISKP and their recruitment of Uzbek and Tajik nationals addressed.

The ISKP poses a severe threat to the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and largely operates with impunity in the country. Image source

Conclusion

The recent ISKP attacks in Moscow and Kerman using Central Asian recruits demonstrate that the group is a potent threat to global security and that it is drawing upon the disaffected populations of Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to achieve its goals. With repressive regimes that drive recruitment in these countries and Russia, as well as a lawless neighboring Afghanistan that allows the ISKP and other extremist movements to proliferate, there are few answers as to how to stem these recruitment efforts. With Tajikistan unlikely to engage the Taliban meaningfully due to extreme hostility between the two, I have argued that Uzbekistan may be the world’s window into potential cooperation with the Taliban for the purposes of combating the ISKP in Afghanistan. However, this is a high-risk endeavor, given the Taliban’s lack of reliability and the regular threat it poses to neighboring Pakistan and Tajikistan. Moreover, without any clear territorial holdings or physical strongholds, the ISKP maintains the advantage of attacking from the shadows with relative anonymity, making it a difficult target.

These factors make combating the ISKP and its recruitment efforts in Central Asia extremely difficult. For this reason, and with the ISKP regularly indicating plans to strike the U.S., Europe, and other places, another major ISKP attack appears likely. Also likely is that it will carry out one of these horrific scenes using recruits from Uzbekistan or Tajikistan, who are largely powerless to combat this ongoing challenge.