China’s Crackdowns Belie Fears Within the Regime

Growing economic woes and social stagnation are driving increased repression.

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Halloween was widely celebrated in Shanghai, perhaps more than in Western cities. Thousands of costumed young people flocked to the city’s art deco core—a remnant of its jazz-age colonial past—joining dozens of parties set to the tune of Michael Jackson’s Thriller and other festive staples. Even the timing was perfect, as late October comes with cool breezes and golden ginkgo leaves beneath azure skies—a reprieve from Shanghai’s notoriously hot summers and damp, frigid winters. But 2024 was different. With little notice, police rounded up costumed partygoers, took them to stations, and forced them to remove their makeup and costumes before registering their names, IDs, and phone numbers. Uniformed officers posted notices stating, “All cosplaying is prohibited, and no Halloween makeup will be permitted.” Even the weather turned, with unseasonal rains soaking the streets. 

Authorities in Shanghai remain on edge following the White Paper protests of November 2022, when thousands of youth took to the streets in response to draconian COVID prevention measures and the economic and social hardships that came with them. Moreover, many tongue-in-cheek costumes mocked pandemic prevention workers and other sensitive topics during last year’s Halloween festivities, something authorities were unwilling to bear this year. Elsewhere in the country, there are signs of growing economic discontent. Workers regularly protest layoffs and unpaid wages at the many struggling factories that dot the southern provinces. There were 719 such incidents in the first half of this year, compared to 696 during the same period last year and just 37 strikes in all of 2022. Many of these labor disputes have provoked violent responses from authorities, most infamously when riot gear-clad police beat workers outside a Foxconn iPhone plant in Zhengzhou in November 2022. 

China’s domestic crackdowns belie a deep and growing sense of fear among its political elites. This insecurity runs counter to the frequent media portrayal of China as a confident and rising superpower and speaks to the growing economic and social crises gripping the country. 

Manufacturing crisis and unemployment.

China’s manufacturing sector, the country’s largest generator of desperately needed foreign cash and investment, has fallen on hard times. Exports have fallen below expectations amid a softening global economy, reduced domestic demand, and increased competition from emerging markets such as India, Mexico, and Vietnam. Although China aims to transition toward “high quality” manufacturing, including items such as electric vehicles (EVs) and batteries, rising protectionism on the world stage threatens its export prospects, especially following the recent election of Donald Trump. Despite significant investment and potential, some 52,000 Chinese EV-related companies shut down last year amid weakening demand and rising raw material costs. Many analysts blame significant government subsidies to the industry for creating overcapacity—a problem that is hardly exclusive to the EV sector.