Airstrikes on Somalia and the Specter of Iranian Influence in the Horn of Africa

With Iranian proxies having disrupted access to the Red Sea, an increasingly Tehran-linked al-Shabaab could do the same in Somalia

Somali-based al-Shabaab (the youth) maintains a powerful fighting force that threatens Somalia and the region at large. Source

US forces recently targeted al-Shabaab militants in Somalia amid growing concerns over disruptions to international shipping traffic and an intensifying civil war in the country. With ships now being diverted around the Horn of Africa and through Somali waters, the prospect of a re-emergence of piracy could further impact global security, especially amid a growing body of evidence that indicates Iranian involvement in the region.

On January 24, US and Somali National Army forces carried out an airstrike in the central Somalian town of Galhareri, killing at least 20 al-Shabaab militants. This comes on the heels of a January 21 strike by the Somali National Army that killed at least 35 al-Shabaab operatives in a house near Kismayo, reportedly using a Turkish-made drone. US Africa Command (AFRICOM) carried out a total of 15 airstrikes in conjunction with the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2023. Although airstrikes on Somali territory are nothing new, these come amid increased global attention to the Somali coast as Yemen-based Houthi militants across the Gulf of Aden disrupt international shipping traffic to the north.  

The reemergence of piracy and its link to al-Shabaab

A map demonstrating the range of Somali pirate attacks in 2011. Source

Piracy off the Somali coast has re-entered the headlines in recent months. Having reached a peak of 212 attacks in 2011 and costing the global economy as much as US $18 billion annually during its heyday, Somali piracy was reported to have “almost completely stopped” as of last September due to collective action on the part of the international community and Somali federal authorities. This collective action was spearheaded by the world’s most powerful navies, including those of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council: the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, and China. However, with the United States and its European allies increasingly at odds with Russia and China, it remains to be seen whether such collective action can be sustainable in the long term.