Air Defense Systems: Low-Cost Weapons Spur Experimental New Technologies

Iran and Russia's ability to produce vast amounts of cheap weapons to overwhelm air defense systems is a growing concern. New technologies are underway to counter this and address high costs.

The British-developed DragonFire directed energy (DE) system remains untested in the battlefield, but will likely arrive in Ukraine soon. Image source

On April 13, Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defense systems, in conjunction with Israeli Air Force and allied assistance, reportedly shot down 99% of the munitions launched by Iran that day. Despite these successful efforts, four Iranian ballistic missiles struck Nevatim Airbase – one of the most secure sites in the country and home to the F-35 aircraft Israel reportedly used to strike Iranian assets in Damascus. The damage was minimal, but the strikes sent a clear message that Iran could evade the best air defense capabilities of Israel and its allies to hit the highly protected area. Although Iran apparently did not target the Negev Nuclear Research Center at Dimona – the alleged site of Israel’s nuclear weapons program – there are growing fears that it could successfully do so in the event of another strike. 

Estimates claim that both Iran and Hezbollah possess the capacity to overwhelm Israel’s air defense systems. If they launched a joint attack, or if Iran used hypersonic missiles – missiles that travel faster than the speed of sound – Israel’s air defense systems are unlikely to prevent significant damage to critical infrastructure across the country. In Ukraine, the country continues to struggle with the cost of the ongoing Russian invasion, including in its missile defense capabilities. These factors are accelerating development into experimental areas that will likely define the new generation of air defense technology. 

Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired by Hamas. Image source

High-cost systems amid increasingly low-cost munitions

The costs of running an air defense system are staggering, with Israeli media reporting that countering the April 13 attack cost as much as $1.35 billion in missile defense. This is because intercepting each incoming munition requires launching a very expensive surface-to-air missile (SAM). In Israel, one medium–long-range ‘David’s Sling’ SAM costs $1 million, while an Arrow-3 costs $3.5 million. In Ukraine, the PATRIOT interceptor missiles provided under the recently approved $6 billion U.S. aid package cost around $4 million each and each battery costs $1.1 billion. For Israel’s Iron Dome defense system – designed to counter small, short-range attacks – the cost for each Tamir interceptor missile ranges between $20,000 - $100,000 compared to the $300 per round Katyusha rockets favored by groups such as Hamas. 

Just as the Soviet Union excelled at producing low-cost and highly versatile weapons such as Katyusha rockets and the AK-47 assault rifle, Iran and Russia now excel at producing low-cost munitions in large quantities. Although it is not known for certain, estimates claim Iranian ballistic missiles cost around $100,000 each, and low-cost drones such as the domestically-produced Shahed 136 loitering drone cost as little as $20,000. Russia now manufactures its own Shahed 136 drones at a special facility in Tatarstan; estimates claim it now produces some 226 units monthly and will produce 6,000 units annually by September 2025. Although hacks reveal that these units are much more expensive to produce than the often reported $20,000 price tag, they can cost Ukraine as much as $500,000 each to shoot down. Moreover, Russia is now buying hundreds of Iranian ballistic missiles, and these likely cost much less than the multi-million-dollar units it produces domestically.  

Air defense systems were initially designed with a different kind of enemy in mind, with the first modern systems developed during the early Cold War. Although these systems have significantly evolved—at an enormous cost—so too have the munitions programs of those seeking to penetrate them. With Iran and Russia developing low-cost ways to overwhelm these systems and Iran sharing much of these technologies with proxies across the Middle East, the cost and efficacy of air defense systems are increasingly coming into question. 

Some estimates claim that Iranian ballistic missiles cost as little as $100,000 each, a far cry from their multimillion-dollar Western counterparts, even with failure rate as high as 50%. Image source

Experimental technologies underway

Given the high cost of interceptor missiles, weapons contractors have increasingly looked to directed-energy weapons as an alternative. In the U.K., researchers successfully fired a high-powered laser weapon known as DragonFire at an aerial target during a trial. The weapon is reportedly so precise that it hit a £1 coin from a kilometer away. Moreover, the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) claims that firing the weapon for ten seconds costs the equivalent of running a regular heater for an hour and that each shot typically costs less than £10 (~$12.50). By contrast, the Standard Missile-2 used by the U.S. Navy for air defense costs more than $2 million per shot. 

DE systems have limitations: they remain untested on the battlefield, and weather issues such as fog and rain cause their beams to scatter, limiting their effectiveness. These weapons also release a lot of heat and require large cooling systems and regular battery changes; they must also remain locked on a moving target for at least 10 seconds to burn holes in them. Regardless, Britain’s MoD announced plans to “speed up” delivery of the weapon to Ukraine before it is fully tested, citing Kyiv’s pressing need for a cost-effective method to counter Russian drone attacks. 

Artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled swarming drones are a subject I’ve covered a lot here as an emerging technology in missile defense. This technology is already in the advanced stages of development. It will likely play an instrumental role in scenarios such as downing multiple munitions launched at a target at once and intercepting hypersonic missiles, which can currently evade most air defense systems due to their high speeds and unpredictable maneuvers. In the longer term, these systems will likely play a critical role in missile defense but remain untested in the battlefield. Not to be outdone, China is also reportedly focusing on AI swarming drones, although Beijing’s restricted access to AI chips could hinder its development in this area. 

AI swarm drones are likely a critical part in the next generation of missile defense. Image source

Conclusion 

Iran and other countries are proliferating low-cost munitions, necessitating a shift in air defense technology. With deficiencies in air defense increasingly apparent amid the war in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Middle East, experimental alternatives are underway. However, the rush to deploy these untested technologies on the battlefield could produce unforeseen consequences, which, I know, is a regular theme in my work here.